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F-16 Students skip Phase III

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Staff: “The reason guys are leaving is the huge pay gap between the Airlines and what we can pay!”

General: “I have a great idea. Let’s widen the gap even more by making enlisted pilots!”

*All others in room stand and applaud in unison*

Just a scene from a play I am working on.

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1 hour ago, Duck said:

Staff: “The reason guys are leaving is the huge pay gap between the Airlines and what we can pay!”

General: “I have a great idea. Let’s widen the gap even more by making enlisted pilots!”

*All others in room stand and applaud in unison*

Just a scene from a play I am working on.

😂

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Only benefit I can see is that it opens it to a larger pool of candidates as it won't require a degree/being an officer so therefore they can snag some kid straight out of high school.  I 100% agree with your comment concerning pay.  If officers won't stay, enlisted sure as shit won't, we don't pay them enough as it is, I can''t imagine them sticking around too long once they get wings.

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1 hour ago, YoungnDumb said:

Only benefit I can see is that it opens it to a larger pool of candidates as it won't require a degree/being an officer so therefore they can snag some kid straight out of high school.  I 100% agree with your comment concerning pay.  If officers won't stay, enlisted sure as shit won't, we don't pay them enough as it is, I can''t imagine them sticking around too long once they get wings.

Since when did we have a problem with the pool of candidates? We don’t have a production problem.  It’s a retention problem.  Enlisted would be less retainable than officers.  

Its not as if we are having problems stocking the UPT pipeline.

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We DO have a production problem.  Quite literally we do not have enough instructors to keep up with the demand.  Perfect example, back at Vance they kept upping the amount of students per class until the system broke.  In the end a cap of ~27 was set as it was a manageable size to get finished in the allotted time.  Furthermore look at the massive FUBAR with the F-16 pipeline over the last year or so.  So yes, we do have a production problem, we can't keep up with the demand.  And concerning the expansion of candidates, using the Academy as an example, the last few years they had left over pilot slots because a bunch of Academy kids didn't want to be pilots.  I can't speak for the ROTC side or OTS.  And I agree that it is also a retention problem, but separate discussion.

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There will ALWAYS be enough candidates off the street who want to be pilots and will go to OTS for a couple months or ROTC for a couple years for the chance. The supply side will never be a limfac.  The academy is a different animal and draws from a much more restrictive pool (harder to get in) so their numbers will vary. 

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There will ALWAYS be enough candidates off the street who want to be pilots and will go to OTS for a couple months or ROTC for a couple years for the chance. The supply side will never be a limfac.  The academy is a different animal and draws from a much more restrictive pool (harder to get in) so their numbers will vary. 

The “I don’t have to be a pilot” commercials probably aren’t helping.
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5 hours ago, YoungnDumb said:

We DO have a production problem.  

No, that’s a symptom of the retention problem. Our number of aviators produced would be sufficient if we were retaining an adequate amount of experience, but we’re not. So, instead it looks like the really ridiculous capacity of our UPT system is too slow and inadequate. 

 

Edit: It's pretty much like one of those rate problems from math class.  You've got the stabilized system where the flow in from UPT is balanced by the retention of aviators and normal separation.5a2472eb27bbe_ScreenShot2017-12-03at3_52_59PM.png.03dc614c5f4c44925ea995ef1394ddfa.png

The flow in is incredibly adequate, but also incredibly difficult to increase due to roughly fixed amount of airframes/mx and the complex interaction of pulling instructors out of their MWS which then opens up a different out flow (not depicted for simplicity).

Then the AF is blind sided by the culture festering as discussed in multiple places here, which causes separations to increase greatly; this is happening at a rate that any sane organization would not try fixing by production when production is very time/resource consuming and it ought to be able to more reasonably constrain the out flow back to the stabilized rate.

5a247303cf08d_ScreenShot2017-12-03at3_52_49PM.png.bbe5c6b0977216d93db8b4ca1a6866f0.png

Edited by SurelySerious

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I’m not an Academy grad but what “if” the academy became a place that groomed pilots. I’m talking 69%+ get an aviation sciences major, full up flight education like an Embry riddle flight program for the military.

Why are we giving free education to history majors who want to be finance officers?


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19 minutes ago, di1630 said:

I’m not an Academy grad but what “if” the academy became a place that groomed pilots. I’m talking 69%+ get an aviation sciences major, full up flight education like an Embry riddle flight program for the military.

Why are we giving free education to history majors who want to be finance officers?

 

100% Agree.  Didn't it start out that way?  If I recall correctly the first few classes all graduated as rated Navs and then went from there.  But if we go and try to make the Air Force actually about flying we'll hurt someones feelings.

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40 minutes ago, di1630 said:

I’m not an Academy grad but what “if” the academy became a place that groomed pilots. I’m talking 69%+ get an aviation sciences major, full up flight education like an Embry riddle flight program for the military.

Why are we giving free education to history majors who want to be finance officers?

Didn't go to the zoo either, but the Academy used to be a place where the majority of grads went on to fly.  That has evolved over the years into a much different picture.  In 2003, 56% went to UPT.  In 2017, it was only 40%.  Back in the 60's and 70's the percentages were apparently much higher but I couldn't find those exact numbers.

Edited by RTB

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WRT to UPT production.....

Not helping is the grenade they threw into the bunker two weeks ago on the AFRC side. Let's just say if it goes through, kiss Reserve manning at UPT bye bye. Someone apparently hit "send" too early up there in Robins and now they got a hell of a situation down here in the catacombs. RC is not exactly a captive audience, retention-wise. WTF were they thinking....

Big Blue senior management has officially lost all composure. They're grasping at the straws and it's making it worse everywhere. Frankly, I expect stop-loss at or before end FY18. If they're so willing to lose 100 dollars to save 2 pennies on the RC side, then that tells me they've all but thrown their arms up in the AC side. Stop loss has to be the only logical next step.

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Didn't go to the zoo either, but the Academy used to be a place where the majority of grads went on to fly.  That has evolved over the years into a much different picture.  In 2003, 56% went to UPT.  In 2017, it was only 40%.  Back in the 60's and 70's the percentages were apparently much higher but I couldn't find those exact numbers.


While I was there 100% of PQ graduates went to UPT. My senior year, the AF said “no more UPT spots than given to ROTC. Because fairness.” So there were people in my class who were qualified but didn’t get to go. It only got worse from there.

And yes, all NQ cadets graduated having completed Nav school while a cadet a long time ago.

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5 hours ago, di1630 said:

I’m not an Academy grad but what “if” the academy became a place that groomed pilots. I’m talking 69%+ get an aviation sciences major, full up flight education like an Embry riddle flight program for the military.

Why are we giving free education to history majors who want to be finance officers?

 

If we're really trying to find a way to somehow skip phase II or III, why not just have qualified zoomies fly the T-6 during their Senior year at the academy, track select at graduation, and press?

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1 hour ago, hindsight2020 said:

I'll give ya a hint....Navy Reserves.

I'm slow and don't understand.  I have a bud that's been a Navy Reserve IP at Kingsville for years and it's been a GREAT deal for him.  

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Why mention something then not provide a single detail hindsight? I’m in Afrc have no idea what you are talking about. 

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21 minutes ago, Termy said:

Why mention something then not provide a single detail hindsight? I’m in Afrc have no idea what you are talking about. 

It doesn't appear this has percolated outside 22AF circles. We'll take it to PM if so inclined. I'm done talking about it here, plus it's thread drift.

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On 12/3/2017 at 10:17 PM, di1630 said:

I’m not an Academy grad but what “if” the academy became a place that groomed pilots. I’m talking 69%+ get an aviation sciences major, full up flight education like an Embry riddle flight program for the military.

Why are we giving free education to history majors who want to be finance officers?

 

It used to be, then the PC culture took over the Academy. 

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On ‎03‎/‎12‎/‎2017 at 2:17 PM, di1630 said:

I’m not an Academy grad but what “if” the academy became a place that groomed pilots. I’m talking 69%+ get an aviation sciences major, full up flight education like an Embry riddle flight program for the military.

Why are we giving free education to history majors who want to be finance officers?

 

Well, all cadets are issued flight suits.

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On 12/3/2017 at 5:07 PM, hindsight2020 said:

Frankly, I expect stop-loss at or before end FY18. If they're so willing to lose 100 dollars to save 2 pennies on the RC side, then that tells me they've all but thrown their arms up in the AC side. Stop loss has to be the only logical next step.

TBH I think it has already been started albeit unofficially.  I can't get my separation paperwork through the system to save my life.  It is literally taking weeks at every step.  At the rate that I'm going I should have an established separation date in the virtual about the time I start terminal...

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On 12/3/2017 at 2:39 PM, YoungnDumb said:

100% Agree.  Didn't it start out that way?  If I recall correctly the first few classes all graduated as rated Navs and then went from there.  But if we go and try to make the Air Force actually about flying we'll hurt someones feelings.

I spent 8 years of my life there and that's the first I've heard of rated Navs.  I have no idea how you'd do it, not like there's much free time avail.  They couldn't even make IFS work there in the early 00s.  No one had time to complete it.

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1 hour ago, sputnik said:

They couldn't even make IFS work there in the early 00s.  No one had time to complete it.

If it was important to the AF to have academy cadets IFS complete when leaving the academy after being there for 4 years, I'm sure they could find the time. 

I've heard cadets are crazy busy but can't imagine all that busy time is a must for commissioning.  IFS is just not a priority.

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