Jump to content
Baseops Forums
Sign in to follow this  
189Herk

Goldfein advocating FAA 1500 hour rule change???

Recommended Posts

Friend of a friend, who is in DC as AF Fellow attended the meeting between USAF and Airlines. His words "it was a horse abortion"; the USAF viewpoint was not looked upon with any type of sympathy. The overall gist was, we are commercial business who's goal is to make $ for our stockholders and company. I guess United was the most vocal in their displeasure. Statements like "you have mismanaged your pilots for over a decade". So I don't think it went like leadership was hoping...

  • Upvote 11

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, nsplayr said:

You've thrown out some fast and loose math here, but is that really your response per se to Emet's expansive post that was linked earlier in the forum?

I know him personally and can vouch for his credibility. His numbers are all explicitly laid out in that post and others on his site along with the assumptions that go into them. If you want to disagree with his numbers, great, but you have to show your work in full if you want dudes to believe you.

And I'm not a pilot, so I have zero skin in this particular airline vs AD game.

To me, the only valid argument against a mil pilot bailing for the majors at the soonest opportunity is that the perceived value of the 20-year AD retirement check and Tricare for life is higher than the actual demonstrable monetary value of those benefits. That and/or just a good ole' fashion patriotic desire to serve (especially to command Groups and Wings) that perhaps can't be met in the ARC.

 

No problem which numbers don't you like?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, Jaded said:

Pilotguy's numbers were invalid as soon as he said that a 20 year captain makes $250,000 a year. There are third year FOs that make that at FedEx. There are third year captains that make that at Delta. 

There are other questionable assumptions, but they are dwarfed by the baseline numbers he uses. 

I used that number to argue the guy above me that used that number. I know Capt's make upwards of 450 toward the end. So ya even still his "millions and millions" of dollars you'd be missing out on just isn't true. At most it's barely 2 million. 

 

Not even to mention the percentage that actually work till 65 is low. Don't have the number but I know it's below half. 

Edited by pilotguy
  • Upvote 1
  • Downvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, pilotguy said:

I used that number to argue the guy above me that used that number. I know Capt's make upwards of 450 toward the end. So ya even still his "millions and millions" of dollars you'd be missing out on just isn't true. At most it's barely 2 million. 

 

Not even to mention the percentage that actually work till 65 is low. Don't have the number but I know it's below half. 

My point is that it's not all that helpful to speak in broad terms, fight against strawmen (millions and millions!), and to guestimate things that are in fact quantifiable.

Folks have shown numbers that directly contradict what you're trying to say (sic "there's not that big a difference in lifetime pay between airlines and retiring from AD") and I guess I'd encourage you to make a stronger, fact-based argument for what you believe in if you think that you're right and others are wrong.

Dudes have done a lot of good bar napkin math to show numbers elsewhere (and at times here too), it would be great to see that level of detail in the airline-centric conversations had around BO.net as a standard.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Regional life better than Guard/Res? Well damn.. I've been remiss. Thanks for that gouge brother, lemme go ahead an curtail my career AGR post haste!

...Motherf----er please.

 

 

...Motherf---er, thank you.

 

Career AGR, well done. Seriously.

 

To substantiate my statement I will say that I meant the Regional gig is "better" apropos the QOL issues that get discussed here ad nauseum. Obviously this is dependent on things like ease/lack of commute and what company you saddle up with for the stop-gap to the Majors, but I stand by my comment. I think, strike that, I KNOW that most AF guys are unaware of the changes in the regional industry that have occurred in the past year and that are continuing every month. I know this because dudes in my squadron who have been Guard their whole career and have their finger on the pulse of the aviation industry don't even know, so I'm sure AD guys are unaware.

 

I actually really enjoy my Regional gig... So much so that I get annoyed hopping back to the Guard anymore. I like the flying, I LOVE the efficiency, and the money (in conjunction with burning minimum Guard days) is not only livable now, it's more lucrative than just bumming. Is it still on the low-side compared to AD pay? Yes, on the FO seat, but upgrade times are at record-lows at most good companies, CA pay is pretty decent now, and for Mil guys, you know you should only be there for a few years, at most.

 

I like knowing that I WILL get home on my last day of a trip... If we break, there is always another jet and I won't be stranded hundreds/thousands of miles from family with another important event missed. I like working for an organization that values saving money, rather than spending capriciously. You hear it all the time, but there is something incredibly satisfying about having all the details in place, ironed-out, and ready to go before you show-up to the jet, 30 minutes prior to push.

 

Arrive, do your job, leave = Paycheck...

 

Hindsight, I'm pretty sure you put your time in as a Bum, so I know that you're familiar with how poorly that equation unfolds for a Traditional guy or someone trying to bum. You spend half your day (like I am today) trying to figure out where your rightfully-earned money from last week/month is, and the other half wondering why you came in at all.

 

So, while I certainly agree that your AGR career spot is a sweet deal, I stand by what I said, and I know there are a lot more who agree with me... I am certain of this because you can now see all the other young guys like me who are turning down the full-time Guard/Reserve gigs that people historically stabbed each other in the back to snag. A year ago I would have jumped at the chance for one of those "Holy Grail" jobs. Now that I've seen the other side, how the regionals have improved, and what the future holds, my response is (and has been to three job offers) "No, thank you". We have new 1Lt's in those spots now.

 

Interesting times, my friends.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, nsplayr said:

My point is that it's not all that helpful to speak in broad terms, fight against strawmen (millions and millions!), and to guestimate things that are in fact quantifiable.

Folks have shown numbers that directly contradict what you're trying to say (sic "there's not that big a difference in lifetime pay between airlines and retiring from AD") and I guess I'd encourage you to make a stronger, fact-based argument for what you believe in if you think that you're right and others are wrong.

Dudes have done a lot of good bar napkin math to show numbers elsewhere (and at times here too), it would be great to see that level of detail in the airline-centric conversations had around BO.net as a standard.

 

Dude get educated please 

http://aviationbull.com/2017/mar/28/what-will-year-cost-me

  • Downvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, so.it.goes said:

 


I'm not saying this to be antagonistic, but I think I'm genuinely a little confused about which "side" (for lack of a better term) you are supporting now.

 

Not really supporting a side. Just hate people who ignorantly claim you're turning down millions and millions of dollars by choosing to stay in. It's simply not true. That's all. You're turning money down but it's way closer than people realize.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
48 minutes ago, pilotguy said:

???

31 minutes ago, so.it.goes said:

 


I'm not saying this to be antagonistic, but I think I'm genuinely a little confused about which "side" (for lack of a better term) you are supporting now.

 

^ this

Now that we're all dumber by beating around this bush with PilotGuy, everyone just go out and read Emet's post on aviationbull for reference and make a smart decision for yourself and your family based on actually running the numbers and figuring out what you value in terms of your career and your life.

As I've said before, I'm not a pilot and have no dog in this fight, so I honestly don't care either way.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Not really supporting a side. Just hate people who ignorantly claim you're turning down millions and millions of dollars by choosing to stay in. It's simply not true. That's all. You're turning money down but it's way closer than people realize.



Okay... Cool, I guess.

The admittedly conservative number he gave in that article still seems like a pretty big f**king number to me... and a lot of money to get paid to NOT deal with bullshit.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, jrizzell said:

Friend of a friend, who is in DC as AF Fellow attended the meeting between USAF and Airlines. His words "it was a horse abortion"; the USAF viewpoint was not looked upon with any type of sympathy. The overall gist was, we are commercial business who's goal is to make $ for our stockholders and company. I guess United was the most vocal in their displeasure. Statements like "you have mismanaged your pilots for over a decade". So I don't think it went like leadership was hoping...

Hahahahahhahaha. 

The clowns are gonna reap what they've sewn. It's gonna be a great time to be a free agent!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
7 hours ago, Lord Ratner said:


Good and hopeful words/plan.

I don't want them to offer more money because it's going to prolong the problem, and America can't afford it.

Sent from my Pixel using Tapatalk
 

I wish your plan the best of luck. How can America not afford it?

I am curious, just want to see your cost vs benefit in terms of raising the bonus/flight pay.

Do you know any study out there that addresses that retention will not be enough If they increase the bonus substantially? 

I get folks are saying there will never be enough people to take it, but how do we know? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, so.it.goes said:

 

Hindsight, I'm pretty sure you put your time in as a Bum, so I know that you're familiar with how poorly that equation unfolds for a Traditional guy or someone trying to bum. You spend half your day (like I am today) trying to figure out where your rightfully-earned money from last week/month is, and the other half wondering why you came in at all.

Ha, it's sad how true that is for TRs. The pay system is so fucked up. We literally have guys who schedule paid admin days every couple of months to resolve inevitable pay issues. 

  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I wish your plan the best of luck. How can America not afford it?
I am curious, just want to see your cost vs benefit in terms of raising the bonus/flight pay.
Do you know any study out there that addresses that retention will not be enough If they increase the bonus substantially? 
I get folks are saying there will never be enough people to take it, but how do we know? 

Are you planning on taking the Devils money?


Sent from my iPhone using Baseops Network Forums

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, Lord Ratner said:


I'm going to be the voice of dissent here and say I hope they don't raise the bonus.

They will never compete. Congress just won't do it, so they will never realistically pay enough to make enough people stay to solve the crisis.

The right answer is to fix the system. Treat people better. Define realistic capabilities based on number of aircraft and aircrew and stick to them. Want more sorties? Give us more people and planes. The AF general level leadership needs to start giving Congress, and whoever the mythical, no-one-can-say-no-to COCOM commanders, real capability levels, and stick to them.

No more cbts just because some bureaucrat thinks it's a good idea. No more spending skilled labor on jobs that can be done by a two striper or civilian. No more making six-figure employees pick up leaves for a staff visit. Treat the talent like a resource. If that means we drop all those things and find ourselves with excess capacity, fine, do another RIF. But treat people the way they know they are worth, and then, only then, worry about the money.

A bigger bonus or more flight pay isn't going to fix this, because they will never, ever, ever be able to raise it enough. The only hope is to recapitalize on camaraderie, patriotism, and self efficacy.

I don't want them to offer more money because it's going to prolong the problem, and America can't afford it.

Sent from my Pixel using Tapatalk
 

Poor argument. Yours is a false dichotomy. The AF doesn't have to choose between QoL and money. They can and should work on both.

Also, you say America can't afford to increase the bonus.  Well, if they triple the bonus from last year to $75k for 9 years, that's $675k.  Depending on airframe, it costs between 4-15 times that much to replace that pilot, not to mention the 10 years of experience.  In truth, the American people can't afford to lose experienced pilots.

I understand that some who take the bonus would take it anyway. However, if the AF wants to retain talent, they have to increase the bonus to level where it will firmly be a part of the decision for all but the most jaded.  At some point, money talks.

And the nice thing is, the AF can work on the QoL issues at the same time.

Edited by flyusaf83
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, flyusaf83 said:
Poor argument. Yours is a false dichotomy. The AF doesn't have to choose between QoL and money. They can and should work on both.
Also, you say America can't afford to increase the bonus.  Well, if they triple the bonus from last year to $75k for 9 years, that's $675k.  Depending on airframe, it costs between 4-15 times that much to replace that pilot, not to mention the 10 years of experience.  In truth, the American people can't afford to lose experienced pilots.
I understand that some who take the bonus would take it anyway. However, if the AF wants to retain talent, they have to increase the bonus to level where it will firmly be a part of the decision for all but the most jaded.  At some point, money talks.
And the nice thing is, the AF can work on the QoL issues at the same time.


Sorry, I didn't mean America can't afford it financially, I mean America can't afford to have a weakened Air Force.

The AF can't increase the bonus. Only Congress can. The AF shot for 60k, which in my opinion is pretty amazing, and they got stomped. We are a pretty (reasonably) cynical group here, but now we think Congress will just open the purse? That's the most optimistic sh*t I've ever heard in my life. Trust me, the day Congress allows the bonus or flight pay to compete with the airlines will be two fiscal year after there's no one left to pay it to.

Your arguments are too ideal, IMO. Of course the AF can work on QoL AND money, but they won't. You know it, I know it. Now that the bonus went up I fully expect the true believers to use this as an excuse to wait a year or two and see how it affects retention, while more people leave. Maybe another "round table" or two, but no real action.

I think there are a lot of leaders, way more than we realized, who find the concept of making changes to the AF to make people happy morally repugnant. They "dealt with it," so we should too. Now they can point to the bonus, which isn't enough, and say "See? We did what you asked, now stop complaining."

I could be wrong, obviously. But I'm trying to think of a solution in the context of what's possible.

And in the interest of full realism, no, I do not expect the AF, or Congress to get it right. I think there will be hearings about the pilot crisis that will go something like this:

DC: Where are the pilots?
AF: Let's give the bonus some time

*Pilots leave*

DC: Where are the pilots?
AF: We're making changes we think will fix it.
DC: What about stop loss?
AF: We don't think stop loss is the right answer for this issue [after they thought it was for a while, of course]

*Pilots leave, missions visibly (CNN) suffer*

DC: Where are the pilots?
AF: Our changes didn't have the planned effect.
DC: What a about stop loss?
AF: We don't think stop loss is the right answer for this issue
DC: We disagree, do a stop loss
AF: ok

*Stop loss goes for six months or so, then makes headlines*

DC: Are you people crazy why are we still stop-lossing our heroes?!?!
AF: *blinking on CSPAN* ...But you said--
DC: End the stop loss!
AF: ok

*Pilots leave. Hollow force. Period of struggle*

*Major attack, war, terrorist event, etc*

*Americans step up, old hats return, patriotism and country music result in massive military spending, AF is reborn*

Rinse and repeat

Edited by Lord Ratner
  • Upvote 11

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Lord Ratner said:

Words of Nostradamus
 

Shack!

Can't wait for the epic thread revival....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The AF has ZERO credibility in DC. That is the reason why you aren't getting your fat bonus. If you actually think that congress listens to Capt Bagodonuts who says "it ain't about the money" then I would say you overestimate how much they even care. However the AF has been the spoiled money-grubbing, temper tantrum throwing red headed stepchild since the whole RPA resistant, F-22 love affair(maybe further back than that, but this comes to mind first for me). Now think about all the other shitty things that have come to light on Capitol Hill that is resultant of Big Blue... MC-12 fight with the Army then subsequently divesting the mission, TAMI-21, attempting to forcibly separate 17-year majors after they had been previously continued, RIFing just 3 years ago, followed by an epic pilot shortage, the acquisition process of the F-35 and even worse the KC-X boondoggle... not to even mention all the freaking dipshit Colonels and Generals (and Capts) we keep firing for doing seriously stupid $hit. The AFs word means dirt. They have asked for money so much that congress is getting sick of it. So if you want to blame someone for messing up the bonus, don't look at your peers, look at upper management.


Sent from my iPhone using Baseops Network Forums

  • Upvote 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, pilotguy said:

Not really supporting a side. Just hate people who ignorantly claim you're turning down millions and millions of dollars by choosing to stay in. It's simply not true. That's all. You're turning money down but it's way closer than people realize.

I've seen several analyses from multiple sources. Almost every single one is not accounting for items that are huge factors. Airline profit sharing, 401K contributions and per diem etc. Additionally, when you earn a military retirement you get your money in small monthly increments. Correct me if I'm wrong here but there isn't much of a correction for inflation either. So, your retirement dollars from a military pension are worth less and less each passing year. 

Compare that to airline pay where you end up getting large chunks of money each year (~$200-$400K) that you can really leverage into investments. I personally think that I can make those dollars go further than a military pension that dwindles in value yearly. I'm going into the reserves too and plan on earning a pension that way so I'll be getting something from the government still. Just later on. (Age 59) 

Factor in the b.s. and political games and AD loses big time. Hence, why everyone is leaving. Are we really having this argument? The fact that so many people are bailing is enough proof in my opinion as to what the smart choice is.

Edited by Spartacus
  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, jrizzell said:

Friend of a friend, who is in DC as AF Fellow attended the meeting between USAF and Airlines. His words "it was a horse abortion"; the USAF viewpoint was not looked upon with any type of sympathy. The overall gist was, we are commercial business who's goal is to make $ for our stockholders and company. I guess United was the most vocal in their displeasure. Statements like "you have mismanaged your pilots for over a decade". So I don't think it went like leadership was hoping...

I'll just say that I got a real interesting look at this from the airline side. Apparently the CSAF in the meeting asked the airlines to pay their pilots less so it's not as enticing for AF pilots to leave. I don't know if he just implied that or came right out and asked, but his request was NOT received well at all.

There is no doubt in my mind that senior AF leadership will screw over the pilots. They are only looking to solve the problem in a way that will be good for big blue. If that means screwing all of over then they will do it.

PULL THE HANDLES NOW IF YOU CAN.  

  • Upvote 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Friend of a friend, who is in DC as AF Fellow attended the meeting between USAF and Airlines. His words "it was a horse abortion"; the USAF viewpoint was not looked upon with any type of sympathy. The overall gist was, we are commercial business who's goal is to make $ for our stockholders and company. I guess United was the most vocal in their displeasure. Statements like "you have mismanaged your pilots for over a decade". So I don't think it went like leadership was hoping...


This is just classic....

Sent from my SM-G930T using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
10 hours ago, Duck said:


Are you planning on taking the Devils money?


Sent from my iPhone using Baseops Network Forums

I am not. I want it to be higher, much higher, around 75K just to think about it. But based on the group predictions that is too ideal. But it doesn't mean I am not interested in it going up and giving our community more options on leaving or staying. What seems too ideal IMO is thinking that we get addl duties less, 365s become useful, Sq are adequately manned with green suiters and civilian staff for those addl duties. 

 

So if folks are going to get screwed over anyway, might as well give us more money (which has been established, by most, as improbable).

Everyone has a price, from least to the most cynical and everyone in between, even you.

 

ADDED: to be clear I want more money and less 365s, less addl duty, etc. 

Edited by Guest

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, Spartacus said:

Apparently the CSAF in the meeting asked the airlines to pay their pilots less so it's not as enticing for AF pilots to leave. I don't know if he just implied that or came right out and asked, but his request was NOT received well at all.

The airline CEOs would LOVE to pay us less!  It's the unions and the pilot groups that would lose their fucking minds if that were to happen in this day and age.  So yeah, no.

Keep the leaks/hearsay coming.  I don't expect ole' Fingers will be publicly releasing his AAR from the meeting in DC.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  



×
×
  • Create New...