Air Force 2027: Fewer Pilots, More Drones, More Challenges

[Radio]

I am not too worried about being replaced by these things anytime too soon. Anyone that is familiar with these UAV's understands their actual capabilities and limitations. While the media and retard Generals wet themselves over these RC toys, their use and contribution still pales in comparison to manned aircraft. The one great advantage they do offer is loiter time. Ask anyone who has a ton of experience down range how many near mid-air's they have had with these RC airplanes. Look at the crash rates per sortie for UAV's. It is atrocious and it has not improved. Something as simple as a failed alternator will take these tinker toys down. Pay attention to these toys when dudes on the ground are getting shot at; they're too busy staring at the ######ing wings because god forbid a $5 million dollar aircraft encounter a few clouds or some trace icing. They fall out of the sky. Of course they won't tell that they're staring at wings, because they are only talking on the internet chat room. See how many of these three letter agency UAV's can't even talk to ATC because the radios suck balls. Finally, ask around and see if anyone else has experienced the random "hellfire going off through the stack" bullshit. Aside from the accidents and deaths that will be associated with these shitballs falling out of the sky, flying them in the NAS will be entertaining because the truths will come out. Problem is, exactly what is the purpose for this? I don't remember them staring at many things we didn't plan to attack or kill.

I've never heard of an RPA firing without at least 9 line passed. It wouldn't surprise me if someone just forgot to call in for final clearance, but I've never heard of a confirmed event of this. Wouldn't a hellfire through a stack be on the JTAC?

There is one known unintentional hellfire release without a splash and it let to big ripples throughout the community. It wasn't during a tic or in a stack.

[Dead Last]

Not my argument - its the USAF's own report from their Chief Scientist.

OH SHIT!!! Not the Chief Scientist!!! Us stupid pilots are in deep trouble...

cheers

[TAMInated]

Wouldn't a hellfire through a stack be on the JTAC?

No.

[tac airlifter]

I've never heard of an RPA firing without at least 9 line passed. It wouldn't surprise me if someone just forgot to call in for final clearance, but I've never heard of a confirmed event of this. Wouldn't a hellfire through a stack be on the JTAC?

Sounds like there's a lot you haven't heard about.

[Radio]

No.

Please explain. Pred Reaper gets a 9 Line and clearance. Shot goes through the stack and all other players are unaware or not properly deconflicted. Its not the JTAC's fault and this becomes a story about how RPAs frequently shoot through stacks.

If the RPA is just shooting in a tic without clearance or SA on the stack, then I would hope there would be court martials.

Sounds like there's a lot you haven't heard about.

If this is as common of an occurance as these posters make it appear, then I would have heard about it. If most fighter pilots have a story about a mystery hellfire dropping through an unprepared stack, then there would be a lot of comm about this.

Edited August 9, 2013 by Radio

[Dead Last]

Please explain. Pred Reaper gets a 9 Line and clearance. Shot goes through the stack and all other players are unaware or not properly deconflicted. Its not the JTAC's fault and this becomes a story about how RPAs frequently shoot through stacks.

If the RPA is just shooting in a tic without clearance or SA on the stack, then I would hope there would be court martials.

If this is as common of an occurance as these posters make it appear, then I would have heard about it. If most fighter pilots have a story about a mystery hellfire dropping through an unprepared stack, then there would be a lot of comm about this.

Number one: not a fighter pilot... I think I'll head to the nearest kill box and shoot my internally carried load all over the place...

Are you fucking serious?!! I've had a 9-line passed via electronic means (not available to everyone)and the only reason I knew the engagement happened was the explosion that happened on the ground and the JTAC saying, yeah that's one of ours...

This shit happens more than you REMFs know/want to admit it does.

And you'll have to dig deep into the daytime sitreps but there are many occasions where this happened and nothing else was ever heard regarding these incidents.

Edited August 9, 2013 by Dead Last

[Tonka]

http://www.flyingsqu...ead-this-first/

We're probably going where we shouldn't be going.

[Radio]

Number one: not a fighter pilot... I think I'll head to the nearest kill box and shoot my internally carried load all over the place...

Are you ######ing serious?!! I've had a 9-line passed via electronic means (not available to everyone)and the only reason I knew the engagement happened was the explosion that happened on the ground and the JTAC saying, yeah that's one of ours...

This shit happens more than you REMFs know/want to admit it does.

And you'll have to dig deep into the daytime sitreps but there are many occasions where this happened and nothing else was ever heard regarding these incidents.

So one JTAC didn't inform his immediate buddies that he was going kinetic. Yes I am aware of mirc 9 lines, the point still being the RPA had clearance and was being told by a ground force commander to shoot then and there.

Edited August 9, 2013 by Radio

[BFM this]

http://www.flyingsqu...ead-this-first/

We're probably going where we shouldn't be going.

GMAFB. This thread is the equivalent of a group of grad Lts, waiting for orders from their UPT base, arguing about how bad they'd heard PEX is, from stories their buddies at the B-course told them.

Mods: please move this thread to its appropriate place in the RPA forum, where it can whither in peace.

[Radio]

http://www.flyingsqu...ead-this-first/

We're probably going where we shouldn't be going.

Speaking generally about what some people have heard, then my point still stands. I've never heard of this happening and if it did, I would first ask the JTAC or air warden when and how they lost SA on their stack during a kinetic strike. If the RPA didn't have clearance or GFC's intent in a CAS environment, it would probably be a commonly talked about story in the community and I would expect it to have gone to a court martial or at least losing wings.

[Vprdrvr69]

I try to only post after drinking heavily. Historically this was extremely infrequent, but it is becoming a much more common event. Everyone bear with me here, it's going to get ugly.

...blah blah blah, words words words...RPAs are great in theory and in the land of R&D...

I work in these areas researching and experimenting with future capabilities for C2 and JISR systems. Almost all the current and future development is in RPAs. Further I spent my USAF career in C2 and ISR aircraft and as much as I hate to say it, the RPA is the future. Once they get clearance to fly in mixed airspace – any mission that is dull, dirty or dangerous will be handled by an RPA.

You must be high! You work in the land of endless cash and limitless dreams apparently. The fact is, this country is drowning in debt! Trying to justify that a predator is worth $5 million bucks over a $1 million dollar manned asset that performs at 5 times the level is ludicrous. You sir are misinformed and stuck in the land of make-believe. I get that idiots want to keep pushing this technology as the only future while there is only a limited future in it. The future may not be manned fighters (or aircraft for that matter), but it isn't these things either. The entire future is wasted if all of the eggs are in this RCA bullshit basket. Generals, politicians, and contractors love 'em. Since you ended up talking about CAS, ask any JTAC in the world if he would rather an A-10, or a goddamn UAV. YGBFSM.

Most of you let the fear of getting non-vol'd to rpas cloud your judgement on this issue. They are a very capable platform at doing the current mission set. There are limitations to them, just like there are limitations on planes by having to design them to have a human in them. I think every pilot should have to do one tour here, the Air Force tells me that this this the front line of the war, and they surely wouldn't lie to me.

No fear of being non-vol'd to those things here; you wouldn't want to send me there. I speak too many truths and rock too many boats. Integrity first right? Just speaking some truths from experience here to help educate folks that either don't have any real-world experience or are stuck in REMF land (perhaps like yourself). There are SERIOUS limitations that make the Pred and Reaper serious limfacs and pure examples of F/W/A. Aside from staying airborne for a day at a time and providing limited data, they are not that valuable. They really aren't. You'll see why they are so loved from senior brass below, where I reference how our USAF tenet has gone horribly wrong.

I've never heard of an RPA firing without at least 9 line passed. It wouldn't surprise me if someone just forgot to call in for final clearance, but I've never heard of a confirmed event of this. Wouldn't a hellfire through a stack be on the JTAC?

There is one known unintentional hellfire release without a splash and it let to big ripples throughout the community. It wasn't during a tic or in a stack.

OK, I have first hand knowledge of this occurring and apparently so do a few others that replied to your post. Whoever you are, you are ill-informed. There are a few wars going on (that's not a typo) and some of us have spent the better part of the last decade fighting them. Sorry if you got left out. Why wouldn't it surprise you that someone forgot to call in on their final clearance? Why would someone releasing a weapon inadvertently IN A STACK be on the JTAC? Seriously? From any weapon employing platform that would be absolutely unacceptable! Firing a missile through a stack without getting VERBAL clearance from the control authority and without deconfliction is ABSOLUTELY UNACCEPTABLE! I hope that is what they teach in RCA land. That is how this event happened- more than once. For your last question, keep reading for the drunken finale...

Please explain. Pred Reaper gets a 9 Line and clearance. Shot goes through the stack and all other players are unaware or not properly deconflicted. Its not the JTAC's fault and this becomes a story about how RPAs frequently shoot through stacks.

If the RPA is just shooting in a tic without clearance or SA on the stack, then I would hope there would be court martials.

If this is as common of an occurance as these posters make it appear, then I would have heard about it. If most fighter pilots have a story about a mystery hellfire dropping through an unprepared stack, then there would be a lot of comm about this.

I'm a fighter pilot because I earned it, not because I still fly it. Maybe in the Guard the privilege will return. Maybe not. The other stories you are reading do not come from fighter pilots but from other folks with first hand knowledge flying other relevant aircraft. I wouldn't be surprised if other pointy nose fellas jump in and share an experience or two as well; I know they have some.

Keep hoping for those court martials. They aren't happening nor should they, at least for the JTAC or Wardens. I'm not putting all of the blame on Pred operators either (not all of it). You sir, are living in the land of theory and textbook application of how USAF warfare is SUPPOSED to be applied. Welcome to the present, where centralized control and CENTRALIZED execution reign supreme. You have dipshits like GC directing virtual 9 lines that make no sense whatsoever and are being sent from half of a world away. They love Pred porn and being able to micro manage aircraft in a stack where the action is. They do have authority and make the choices that lead to events you don't hear about. That's how your damn Hellfire ends up blitzing through a stack. Don't blame the warden, and don't blame the JTAC (if there was even one even there). Mix in non-military actors and the fun escalates exponentially! Nine-lines make sense during CAS, but in todays screwed up land of Generals running tactical missions without ground troops, those same CAS procedures somehow end up being used for air-interdiction strike missions that have nothing to do with TICs or JTACs. It's about as effective as the current administration running economic policy or Diane Feinstein debating FOR the second amendment. Good on you for reading the books about how it should be, now go get some experience related to how it actually is. ///play clowncar music///

I reread this post three times, and it illustrates truths but does not violate OPSEC. It covers things we don't want to talk about (but should); it doesn't hurt anyone but ourselves if we don't recognize these problems and fix them. Fix 'em GC, you're an aviator right?

[Darth]

I try to only post after drinking heavily. Historically this was extremely infrequent, but it is becoming a much more common event. Everyone bear with me here, it's going to get ugly.

Quote shortened for brevity....otherwise

[Radio]

Thanks for clarifying it wasn't in a conventional CAS scenario, as the original posts would have implied.

It wouldn't surprise me if someone called in without clearance because I've heard of this happening 4+ years ago and the JTAC immediately cleared them hot after they announced rifle. Its a cautionary tale taught in the school house. I would also expect "don't shoot through a stack without clearance" to also be cautioned against with SIIs and added checklist items from the OG.

Your original points included - "See how many of these three letter agency UAV's can't even talk to ATC because the radios suck balls. Finally, ask around and see if anyone else has experienced the random "hellfire going off through the stack" bullshit." You mixed in a weakness inherent to the airframe with the actions of a few crews with unknown alibis.

Then someone else piled on with "Often times they work great for single specific missions, but often times they also shoot without clearance through the middle of an air stack while failing to place their crosshairs on the correct target." If this really happens "often" then my POV is even more relevant and I definitely have to call BS.

Now it seems all along you were talking about non CAS, non text book events with generals playing back seat JTAC.

[FallingOsh]

ask any JTAC in the world if he would rather an A-10, or a goddamn UAV. YGBFSM.

just thought this line was worth repeating

[billy pilgrim]

Centralized control, centralized execution. Classic Air Force!!

[tac airlifter]

Radio, why did you assume our comments were specific to CAS events? If you think an airstrike is "non text book" when it happens outside of CAS then there are text books you haven't read. Your notion that you surely would have heard of these things with FEBs and court martials and school house lessons is patently ridiculous.

Bottom line, RPAs are a great tool for some missions & their capabilities will and are slowly improving. But they won't be taking over every job for manned aircraft anytime soon because they aren't reliable enough; anyone pushing contrariwise has no real world experience.

[Blue Scourge]

Well, that and their complete lack of ability to survive in a non-permissive or denied environment.

Shack.

I tried explaining this to a buddy of mine who spent quite some time in the pred community. He just could not understand.

[Chaff]

This forum makes me feel like all the drone guys people talk to are idiots.

Who would argue that a drop without clearance is the fault of anyone but the PIC?

Who would argue that a Pred / Reaper could replace an A-10 in a CAS roll?

Who would argue that we could operate in a denied environment?

We do some missions well. Others we do not. In the future we all know those mission sets will expand with technological improvements and new aircraft.

[hobbitcid]

You must be high! You work in the land of endless cash and limitless dreams apparently. The fact is, this country is drowning in debt! Trying to justify that a predator is worth $5 million bucks over a $1 million dollar manned asset that performs at 5 times the level is ludicrous. You sir are misinformed and stuck in the land of make-believe. I get that idiots want to keep pushing this technology as the only future while there is only a limited future in it. The future may not be manned fighters (or aircraft for that matter), but it isn't these things either. The entire future is wasted if all of the eggs are in this RCA bullshit basket. Generals, politicians, and contractors love 'em.

The land of endless cash of limitless dreams? Seriously? Maybe you call the someone over in JFCOM J8 or J9 to find how flush they are - oh that's right, they've been cancelled outright along with most of their experimentation. So OK, RPAs aren't perfect, no one said they were... But from my view of R&D programs for airborne C2 and ISR airborne systems, i'm seeing two trends - RPA (UAV) and corporate jet. The decision makers are rapidly trying to move crew to the ground and use a network enabled strategy ot distributes information dissemination and collection. Manned platforms for these missions are getting smaller or going unmanned. So how does this affect weapons delivery systems? Quite simply they are an evolution of capabilities currently in use. The RQ-1 was not designed to fire weapons but it evolved to this role. Similarly the MQ-9 was supposed to be a more capable RQ-1, but has morphed into a combat paltform as well. The Avenger, the next evolution in the Pred family is being designed with combat capabilities in mind. So yes, RPAs have their problems - its still an immature technology - but so did the airplane at one time as well.

Since you ended up talking about CAS, ask any JTAC in the world if he would rather an A-10, or a goddamn UAV. YGBFSM.

I don't remember bringing up CAS though it is a major area of growth. In fact, a great deal of experimentation is going on with RPAs. Fro the record, I am not a CAS guy by trade though I've worked in that area recently. Based on what I've seen from the current and emerging RPA capability, I'd say some missions still require that " human touch." - the intuition only a human can provide for decision making in complex environments. At this point DCA, CAS, PR (Sandy and Jolly Green) need a human in the loop to evaluate and make decisions based on emerging a dynamic situation (e.g. Situation Awareness). Computers are a long way from that... But, there aree many missions the armed RPA can and possibly should take the lead in - Strike into non-permissive airspace, OCA against heavily defended targets, SEAD, Air Support (airdrop) in non-permissive airspace, etc. Non armed combat missions include ISR, Tactical Recon, Psyops, comm relay (e.g. BACN), etc. The technology is coming...

Basically, I'm not advocating either way. I only posted the article and gave my opinion based on experience and recent programs. RPA's are here to stay and have the R&D money to contuinue their evolution. Its best to figure how to work with them in the short and long term. They will be part of the force for a long time to come.

Centralized control, centralized execution. Classic Air Force!!

So true and with the continued emphasis on network enabled capabilities its only going to get worse... BTW, its referred to as "Flattening the Chain of Command" and is supposed to be a good thing...

Edited August 11, 2013 by hobbitcid

[Radio]

Radio, why did you assume our comments were specific to CAS events? If you think an airstrike is "non text book" when it happens outside of CAS then there are text books you haven't read. Your notion that you surely would have heard of these things with FEBs and court martials and school house lessons is patently ridiculous.

Bottom line, RPAs are a great tool for some missions & their capabilities will and are slowly improving. But they won't be taking over every job for manned aircraft anytime soon because they aren't reliable enough; anyone pushing contrariwise has no real world experience.

Are you seriously defending this statement?

"often times they also shoot without clearance through the middle of an air stack while failing to place their crosshairs on the correct target."

I haven't said anything about RPAs being superior to manned aircraft or vice versa. Obviously they are not in most regards. I'm just saying that statement is pure BS. If it happens then it certainly doesn't happen often.

You and viperdriver69 can rail all you want against RPAs and it doesn't bother me at all.

This is just an unbelievable catch 22. RPA crews are so regularly negligent that they put all the fighters and other manned assets in danger or catching a hellfire. Lets all be mad about that but also assume it wouldn't be a big deal to the RPA crew and senior leaders wouldn't take it seriously.

If it happened in my squadron I can guarantee you the crew would be Q3d, an SII would be written the next day and additional training or checklist items would be added for everyone else. It wouldn't be the type of "aw shucks, well thats RPA business" attitude you two seem to suggest.

This forum makes me feel like all the drone guys people talk to are idiots.

Who would argue that a drop without clearance is the fault of anyone but the PIC?

You're mixing apples and oranges. The original point was that RPAs often shoot through stacks without warning lower level manned assets. I can't speak on if they had clearance or not. I guess the people who made that point would have you assume the worst.

Edited August 11, 2013 by Radio

[hobbitcid]

Are you endorsing this as a good thing?

No not at all... There is a distinct chain of command for a reason and the ability of a JFACC or JFC to reach directly through to the shooter causes far more problems than it solves - so perhaps I needed to be more sarcastic. The first time I saw this was during early Balkans operations when a senior officer in the CAOC was speaking directly to an A-10 pilot asking him to confirm his target... The JFACC basically blasted through 2-3 levels of C2 including the flight lead to get involved in the fight... Unfortunately we are likely to see more of this based on ever increasing access to network enabled comms and applications. Technically, we can now connect the JFACC with the shooter in the field. Is it a good idea, I don't think so. Can the Generals be disciplined enough to follow the chain when the s**t hits the fan? I hope so... But the temptation is certainly there...

While this is a little off subject - the concept actually feeds right back to the increase in RPAs... With network enabled control, ISR and targeting applications, automonmous controlled RPAs and access to a wide range of current and archived intelligence and ISR products, it is technically possible to run an entire strike package from the CAOC floor - mission planning, pre-strike recce, strike operations, post strike recce, BDA, intel analysis and debrief with all of the "carbon life forms" (human operators) all within sight of each other... So in essence, the chain of command is flatenned into one single room... We are a long way from there, but its coming... Just my thoughts

Edited August 11, 2013 by hobbitcid

[Slander]

Can the Generals be disciplined enough to follow the chain when the s**t hits the fan?

Extremely unlikely. There are already plenty of examples of this not happening.

[joe1234]

The funny thing about this topic, is that when leaders, especially leaders who are fighter pilots, in the Air Force advocate against RPA's and for manned combat aircraft, people can't tell whether they are being sincere and unbiased, or are simply protecting their position of being the dominant group of the entire service. It doesn't help that fighter communities have a reputation for being exclusive and self-promoting, like a wealthy Ivy League frat, but on a bigger scale.

Regardless of the merits of the argument against RPA's (and I do believe there really is a lot of merit), it seems to be confounded by the undercurrent of fighter pilot distrust that is widespread throughout the DoD. I just thought that this should be mentioned.

[brabus]

Maybe you should consider the fact fighter pilots have the highest "real world" SA on what actually works/is required in the mission sets currently executed by fighter aircraft (referring to well beyond CAS...we won't be doing this stuff forever). Of course there is a sense of self-preservation when it comes to future jobs, desire to continue in manned aviation, etc...I won't deny that. However, dudes deep in RPA programs, etc. are so removed from said missions/have ZERO SA on the actual missions (beyond what they've read/been briefed), they work with "conceptual" SA. It's all theory, works-great-in-a-vacuum, etc. It shouldn't be a surprise when folks who actually sit in the seat and fly shoot valid holes in the "realistic ability" of different programs.

Yep, we'll eventually get there, but there's real, valid reasons why people are not the level of RPA-lovers others think they should be. And it has extremely little to do with wanting to preserve our future jobs.

Edited August 12, 2013 by brabus

[joe1234]

Yes, yes, I know, that's why I said the arguments have a lot of merit. But that perception of bias is definitely there, at least what I've noticed from guys in other services and career fields within the AF.

All I'm just saying that it's important to keep that in mind, because a lot of guys seem oblivious to the fact.