Azimuth Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 (edited) Both. He said that if sequestration is to continue its full term, it's going to until 2023. The USAF wanted to "plan ahead" and figured that they had to lose 25,000 people as a worst case scenario. If they cut that amount of people within the next 1-2 years the USAF would be fine until 2023. If they did not lose that amount of people fast, he would have to drawn down flying units ever years for 6+ months, like he did this year in ACC. Right now 33% of combat coded units are CMR, he said this needs to increase, so he needs to find funding else where to pay to fly (through personnel cuts). He said he only gets funding for 100% of manning in each career field, every person over that 100% he has to pay out of O&M funds to keep them, that's why if you're in a overage career field, expect cuts until it gets to 100% manning. He decided to delay the E-8 promotion release two weeks because he (and Chief Cody) didn't want to release the list during the time that the force management isn't stable. He also didn't want to promote someone into an overage in their career field and now all of sudden pop up on the retention board in May. He also said that he/Air Staff knew they would never cut 25,000 people, that's worst case. Plus they also knew that they wouldn't have to result to going for involuntary measures to get people out (hence why the RIF board was pushed back till Oct) because they would get enough volunteers. He said after he released the measures, and some "fine tuning" done by AFPC/A1 that number is going to drop and he expect it to be around 10,000. He didn't know about the delay in VSP processing/put on hold and got very pissed (his Aide de Camp said he's never seen him that mad) and made a very terse phone call to the A1 after the brief asking for explanation and apparently the A1 didn't know about it either. He apologized during the SNCO call and said it will get fixed when he gets back to D.C. What he's upset about is how information is going out from Air Staff and by the time it filters through mid-leadership (Wing/Group/Sq Commanders) we may, or may not, have received that information. Good example are the amount of folks who get more information from this message forum than from their leadership. What he did ask is for folks to have patience. He said that the USAF is doing some old (from the last draw downs) force management programs, to some that haven't ever been used before. There are going to be confusion, questions, push back, etc. He said that he made sure that the USAF provides the maximum amount of options, by law, for folks to make their decisions if they wanted to get out (VSP, TERA, Palace Chase, Palace Front) etc. Edited March 8, 2014 by Azimuth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panchbarnes Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 (edited) He also said that him/Air Staff knew they would never cut 25,000 people, that's worst case. Plus they also knew that they wouldn't have to result to going for involuntary measures to get people out (hence why the RIF board was pushed back till Oct) because they would get enough volunteers. He said after he released the measures, and some "fine tuning" done by AFPC/A1 that number is going to drop and he expect it to be around 10,000. If they knew they can easily get 10K then why not just offer VSP and stop there? Instead of getting everyone in the AF all spun up and manhours wasted in creating RRFs. Maybe there is a good explanation for this but I'm not tracking. Edited to add: Oh and the "I didn't know this was happening" excuse is tired. How about "The buck stops here" instead? Edited March 8, 2014 by PanchBarnes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dubs Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Edited to add: Oh and the "I didn't know this was happening" excuse is tired. How about "The buck stops here" instead? Deny, deny, deny, counter-accuse, deny. The USAF way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Azimuth Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 I can't completely remember but he said once they released the force management guidance, they ran into road blocks (laws) that they didn't know about, which affected the amount they had initially set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panchbarnes Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 (edited) I can't completely remember but he said once they released the force management guidance, they ran into road blocks (laws) that they didn't know about, which affected the amount they had initially set. I like Gen Welsh but I'm having a real hard time buying that explanation. There are always JAGs on the staff to advice the commander, and at the HAF level, it should be your most experienced (assumption on my part) JAGs advising the stars, especially on a major force management program such as this debacle. Manpower is not exactly breaking new legal grounds so for him to say "laws they didn't know about" it doesn't make sense (to put nicely). Maybe we need Chang to explain this if he's still around. Edited March 8, 2014 by PanchBarnes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danny Noonin Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 There are always JAGs on the staff to advice the commander, and at the HAF level, it should be your most experienced (assumption on my part) JAGs advising the stars, especially on a major force management program such as this debacle. Manpower is not exactly breaking new legal grounds so for him to say "laws they didn't know about" it doesn't make sense (to put nicely). Bad assumption on your part, unfortunately. Some of the HAF JA types are not exactly the finest legal minds in the nation. And the laws that got in the way were not likely major, long-standing laws, but rather one-line snippets hidden deep within the 14 NDAA somewhere. But I fully agree--no excuse for A1 to have not understood the authorization and restrictions in advance. Total shit show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BitteEinBit Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I fully expected that A1 would not understand authorization and restrictions or this drawdown....really, this is not a surprise to me. Again, when your people are focused on the wrong shit 96% of the time, when you need them to focus on what is really important (ie, their primary jobs), they have to play catch up. Like I've always said before, we can still get the job done, it just won't be timely or pretty. I expect this trend to continue for at least another generation of "leadership." The CSAF and A1 didn't know about VSP delays/shenanigans? Really!?!? Who the fuck was making the decisions on that if not the top two dudes in the reporting chain who are supposed to be directing this thing? Is Chang up there making decisions without talking to the boss?!? Great staff work! I've seen people fired for much MUCH less. How can you not brief THE boss on progress to cut 25,000 airmen? Good luck A1...we're all counting on you! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tnkr Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I can't completely remember but he said once they released the force management guidance, they ran into road blocks (laws) that they didn't know about, which affected the amount they had initially set. Good thing A1 got rid of that after action report/continuity book from the last two rounds of this circus. They were taking space were the BBQ contest award can go! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 More proof that Tony Carr is an avid reader of the forums: http://www.jqpublic-blog.com/business-usual-air-force-personnel-center-mangles-drawdown/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DUNBAR Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I would be interested in any insights or comments from folks with direct experience working at or with AFPC regarding Tony's article. I suspect there is much more plain old incompetence at work than evil Orwellian conspiracies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawnman Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I fully expected that A1 would not understand authorization and restrictions or this drawdown....really, this is not a surprise to me. Again, when your people are focused on the wrong shit 96% of the time, when you need them to focus on what is really important (ie, their primary jobs), they have to play catch up. Like I've always said before, we can still get the job done, it just won't be timely or pretty. I expect this trend to continue for at least another generation of "leadership." The CSAF and A1 didn't know about VSP delays/shenanigans? Really!?!? Who the fuck was making the decisions on that if not the top two dudes in the reporting chain who are supposed to be directing this thing? Is Chang up there making decisions without talking to the boss?!? Great staff work! I've seen people fired for much MUCH less. How can you not brief THE boss on progress to cut 25,000 airmen? Good luck A1...we're all counting on you! The same way the nuclear enterprise hid their dismal morale programs from higher headquarters for so long. "No sir, no problems here, everything's going great, we got a ton of VSP applications, we shouldn't have any problem meeting your goals". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chizz Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 With the brief pause for Air Staff to digest the amount of VSP applicants, do you think the numbers will increase or decrease in the 11M category, or maybe they've decided to not release any pilots at all? With the 16,400 FY15 proposed active duty cut maybe they'll increase the numbers. Or is the Proposed FY15 cut part of the original plan that was unveiled my CSAF in December? However a majority of that will come from the enlisted force. "or maybe they've decided to not release any pilots at all?" DING DING DING. thats my guess. All of a sudden each and every one of us is needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skitzo Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Need the rated bodies to stick around and run the gym? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tnkr Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I would be interested in any insights or comments from folks with direct experience working at or with AFPC regarding Tony's article. I suspect there is much more plain old incompetence at work than evil Orwellian conspiracies. Conspiracies imply that there is a higher order intelligence at play. Will any of us that have ever dealt with AFPC be willing or able to commit to the idea that there is an overarching higher order intelligence in A1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainHerc Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 At least we know the AFPC folks are prepping for their future careers down the road at the VA. Seems the three tactics they have in common is delay, deny and shred. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mountain Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Conspiracies imply that there is a higher order intelligence at play. Will any of us that have ever dealt with AFPC be willing or able to commit to the idea that there is an overarching higher order intelligence in A1? So very true. AFPC has a very "we answer to nobody" attitude when it comes to doing most things, and the attitude is throughout the organization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shweaty Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Million dollar question. Will we have an answer this week? Or maybe a first batch result? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chizz Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 (edited) memo from CSAF is dropping tues. At least we know the AFPC folks are prepping for their future careers down the road at the VA. Seems the three tactics they have in common is delay, deny and shred. http://washingtonexaminer.com/veterans-affairs-purged-thousands-of-medical-tests-to-game-its-backlog-stats/article/2544580 so true Edited March 10, 2014 by chizz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunes Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Million dollar question. Will we have an answer this week? Or maybe a first batch result? "first batch" was processed 2+ weeks ago when the first round of mass UPT ADSC denials went out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shweaty Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 (edited) "first batch" was processed 2+ weeks ago when the first round of mass UPT ADSC denials went out... I don't think a first batch was processed. Those apps with ADSC's were denied during the initial screening. We have three people at my base that have had their app in since day one and have not been rejected yet. They too have an ADSC for UPt. Edited March 10, 2014 by C17Jockey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dreamer Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Anyone know what validation complete means for TERA? Saw it updated on my app Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crewdog135 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Dreamer, I wish I did. I'm in the same boat. Not sure what it means but it was the first change in a month. Hopefully we'll know something soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dreamer Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Yep, I need to find a job.. First progress in over a month also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunes Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 (edited) If you have a UPT ADSC it's time to give up the ghost....the rejection notes from all those denied say its specifically for UPT ADSC and therefore ineligible...if they then process other apps with UPT ADSC and approve them, the people that got denied have a whole hell of a lot of ammo.. Edited March 10, 2014 by tunes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WAG Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 (edited) memo from CSAF is dropping tues. http://washingtonexaminer.com/veterans-affairs-purged-thousands-of-medical-tests-to-game-its-backlog-stats/article/2544580 so true Does this fall under the "it's only important if somebody has to ask you to do it twice" tactic most commonly employed by execs? Edited March 10, 2014 by WAG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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