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Saddle up for Syria? Or Op Deny Christmas '13


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http://www.defense.gov/News/News-Transcripts/Transcript-View/Article/622454/press-conference-by-secretary-carter-at-nato-headquarters-brussels-belgium

SEC. CARTER: Russia has chosen to double-down on their longstanding relationship with Assad, committing additional military hardware capabilities and personnel. Now, the Russians originally said they were going in to fight ISIL and al-Nusra and other terrorist organizations. However, within days of deploying their forces, the Russians began striking targets that are not any of these groups. [...] We have not and will not agree to cooperate with Russia so long as they continue to pursue this misguided strategy. We've seen increasingly unprofessional behavior from Russian forces. They violated Turkish airspace, which as all of us here made clear earlier this week, and strongly affirmed today here in Brussels, is NATO airspace. They've shot cruise missiles from a ship in the Caspian Sea without warning. They've come within just a few miles of one of our unmanned aerial vehicles. They have initiated a joint ground offensive with the Syrian regime, shattering the facade that they're there to fight ISIL. This will have consequences for Russia itself, which is rightfully fearful of attack upon Russia. And I also expect that in coming days, the Russians will begin to suffer casualties in Syria. [...] We will continue to prosecute the counter-ISIL air campaign at the same pace and in the same battle space as we have since it started in Syria. We will continue to support the moderate Syrian opposition. We will seek an agreement with the Russians on professional safety procedures for coalition pilots. And we will leave the door open for Russia to rejoin the track toward a political transition in Damascus. We will also continue to make it clear that if Russia wants to end its international isolation, it must stop its aggression in eastern Ukraine, end its occupation and attempted annexation of Crimea, and live up to its commitments under the Minsk agreements. We must not let ourselves be distracted by Russian activities in Syria at the expense of holding them to task under Minsk. This was also the strong sense of the NATO meeting earlier today. [...]

Q: Did the United States and its allies get caught flat-footed by Russia's intervention in Syria to prop up Bashar al-Assad? And why are you so certain that Russia's strategy here is a losing one?

SEC. CARTER: [...] what is clear is that Russia said one thing and did another. Now that by itself, unfortunately, isn't new [...] So I think in this case, as in all cases, we have to watch behavior and not take at face value what Russia says because our experience here, Ukraine and elsewhere is that sometimes, the deeds and the words don't match up.

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I definitely agree it's all about the money and power (the vast majority of politics is), but I disagree that anything with regards to this issue will change with the next administration.  The country is not the same as it was 15 years ago, much less what it was 35 years ago.  Also, the Middle East is losing its place when it comes to importance in the world...so not not only has our country changed, but the world, the world economy, etc has changed.  

Can't argue the point we're a different world/country economically/geopolitically and in 1980 our strongest response from the Democratic administration at the time to the invasion of Afghanistan was to boycott the Olympics....on a side note it was just reported that a potentially large untapped oil field was found in Israel to add a new wrinkle...but if Donald Trump somehow gets elected there's no telling how he would react to a Russian provocation......though we all hope that the realities of being president as opposed to running for president would be assessed rationally.....(that's where our senior military leadership owes POTUS  whomever it is the unvarnished truth)............Sunni/Shia animosity has only grown since we were all spending our many long deployments in Iraq and ISIS certainly hasn't helped the animosity. Would the Shiites from Iran and Iraq like to dominate Saudi Arabia/Suez Canal/Eastern Mediterranean/Israel etc...by actual or implied threat of force and be happy to let Russia provide the muscle? That to me is scary proposition.

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I assume their spins are more abbreviated than ours

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Probably something like this:

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Proposed Safe Zone is getting circulated with about 0.69% of happening.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/us-said-it-will-create-a-safe-zone-on-syrian-border-but-nobody-knows-how/2015/08/12/4c7d0baa-37e4-11e5-ab7b-6416d97c73c2_story.html

Just as soon as we commit to an open ended 100k boots on the ground, not holding breath...

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It's time to pound some Cunth...

MacGruber could figure this shit out

MacGruber-1.jpg

But we're without him so mere mortals will have to do...there is no solution, just as I am starting to believe there is no Syria anymore, all the nations created by Sykes-Picot are failing apart, let it just partition and separate out...

AB15CCD5-6983-41D2-93F0-5F8C355F3C9F_mw1

 

 

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  • 3 weeks later...

60 Minutes on the Air Campaign against ISIS.  

http://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/60-minutes-takes-a-glance-at-the-growing-costs-of-the-a-1738638898

From the article "...the cost to sustain the air war, which was stated to be $10 million daily."  If that number and the likelihood we will just keep dropping iron on jihadi a-holes here and elsewhere into the foreseeable future are not reason enough for the US to buy something that doesn't cost around $60k+ an hour to deliver a PGM then nothing will...

 

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[...] we expect to intensify our air campaign, including with additional U.S. and coalition aircraft, to target ISIL with a higher and heavier rate of strikes. [...] As I said last Friday, we’ve already begun to ramp up these deliberate strikes.
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"At the hearing, Dunford and Defense Secretary Ash Carter both struggled to describe the next steps in the U.S. military’s fight against the Islamic State group in Syria."

In other words: we really have no idea what the fuck we are doing and so we'll just keep tossing JDAMs at Hiluxs until someone forces us to actually come up with a plan.

http://www.defenseone.com/politics/2015/10/dunford-us-will-rethink-its-iraq-presence-if-russia-goes/123157/?oref=DefenseOneFB&

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"At the hearing, Dunford and Defense Secretary Ash Carter both struggled to describe the next steps in the U.S. military’s fight against the Islamic State group in Syria."

In other words: we really have no idea what the fuck we are doing and so we'll just keep tossing JDAMs at Hiluxs until someone forces us to actually come up with a plan.

http://www.defenseone.com/politics/2015/10/dunford-us-will-rethink-its-iraq-presence-if-russia-goes/123157/?oref=DefenseOneFB&

Yup - Op Run out the Clock then let the next POTUS handle it

Syria has some interesting words on our next phase 

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/M/ML_SYRIA?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2015-10-31-07-40-12

What every POTUS fears will be the end of Afghanistan, Iraq, anywhere we get involved in COIN / Nation building after we leave (if ever) ...

1411441997603_wps_61_29_Apr_1975_Ho_Chi_

This image of the evacuation of Saigon must be on the mind of every President, not on my watch but what the hell else can we do besides keep the shit at shoe level by bombing them when we can?  Turkey and Iraq don't want or will not let us heavily arm the Kurds, the Iraqi army is a mess, IS is not going away without a fight on the ground by an overwhelming and competent force and then long term occupation / pacification with no guarantee of success.

Usually I hate just bitching about the news without being able offer anything of value but I think there is no real solution in Syria, it doesn't exist anymore effectively and that taking the position that a new Sunni state of eastern Syria / Western Iraq is a viable alternative, with NO recognition of the Islamic State but turning the government of this new state to Sunni Arab tribes and local governments.  

There is precedent for this in the creation of the new nation of South Sudan, accepting the partition of Syria but not the existence of ISIS as the government.  How you actually do this is the 64 billion dollar question. 

 

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Well we already lost an ambassador in Libya due to the failed involvement (albeit limited) in the Arab Spring and the current administration managed to get re-elected. I honestly don't think the majority of the population cares, as made obvious by the general unawareness of the global on-goings by the people I talk to on a daily basis.

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... general unawareness of the global on-goings by the people I talk to on a daily basis.

Spot on.  The low give a fuck factor will stay that way until IS or similar group of individuals commit to an on-going campaign of operations with CONUS (God forbid that ever happens).  However, once you disrupt Joe Six-pack's daily flow of Dancing with the Stars, TMZ feed via Facebook and Monday Night Football; THEN they'll take notice that all that crap over there affects them here.   It's not 1915, you can't ignore problems 'over there' anymore; those two big oceans on each side don't provide the security they once did.   

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Spot on.  The low give a fuck factor will stay that way until IS or similar group of individuals commit to an on-going campaign of operations with CONUS (God forbid that ever happens).  However, once you disrupt Joe Six-pack's daily flow of Dancing with the Stars, TMZ feed via Facebook and Monday Night Football; THEN they'll take notice that all that crap over there affects them here.   It's not 1915, you can't ignore problems 'over there' anymore; those two big oceans on each side don't provide the security they once did.   

Wait...are you suggesting that terrorists can come into this country illegally (but stay here as illegal immigrants, because it's cool now) and plan/carry out attacks?  How can this be?  

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  • 2 weeks later...

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