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Saddle up for Syria? Or Op Deny Christmas '13


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Long article but worth the read.

ISIS’ Grip on Libyan City Gives It a Fallback Option

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/29/world/middleeast/isis-grip-on-libyan-city-gives-it-a-fallback-option.html?_r=0

 

 

Similar from the WSJ on Sirte, Libya; they're exporting their brand and trying to grab oil resources. This is a terrible game of whack-a-mole

http://www.wsj.com/articles/islamic-state-entrenches-in-sirte-libya-1448798153

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Similar from the WSJ on Sirte, Libya; they're exporting their brand and trying to grab oil resources. This is a terrible game of whack-a-mole

http://www.wsj.com/articles/islamic-state-entrenches-in-sirte-libya-1448798153

Shifty bastards.

Not disengagement but selective direct action is our best tactic, our strategy needs to be money, guns and support for regional allies that meet serious requirements (anti-corruption, human rights, etc...) with a limited footprint in the ME.  All of this accompanied by a cultural, moral argument against jihadism; an information campaign larger than our current one and the expansion of a what I would call active allies in this active intellectual confrontation against Islamic Fascism.  This argument can not just be fought by the West; other nations, cultures, traditions, religions, etc... need to brought to isolate and confront intellectually the jihadis but their sympathizers and enablers.  The civilized world has to call out the Saudis for exporting Wahhabism, the Iranians for support of Hezbollah, the Pakistanis for the assistance to the Taliban, etc...  there are a ton of free riders out there enjoying the benefits of the liberal world order that has evolved, it's time to get everyone rowing who enjoys this boat...

http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/05/28/the-pitfalls-of-a-whack-a-mole-strategy-against-isis/

Easy to say, hard to implement given our current political climate.  Pols want to score soundbite points and bumps in the poll numbers with quick shots from the hip and large military actions to project the image of strength and decisiveness.  Our political cycles are so short that a careful, well thought strategy requiring years to be effective comes across as weakness because you don't get the immediate high of a major military ground action, seizure of territory but then followed by the hangover of occupation-pacification-nation building.  

That said, I think if a President (particularly one in their second term) laid out an agenda to contain and confront, offer help to change the nations and societies that produce nihilistic, sociopathic jihadis and be honest that this will take 20+ years because our ultimate goal is a generation of young people in the ME who don't hate us, other religions and want to do something other than blow themselves up on a bus or airplane and that we are gonna get all the Allies on board with this because we all stick together or hang together, this could work, but I'm an optimist...

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sums it up.

Reset option as seen from ground level.

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But Quinn was right, 200k boots on the ground indefinitely with the equal number teachers, doctors, etc.. but that could be low.  Just a WAG but 200k boots on the ground and the civil rebuilding teams, logistics, support etc.. would be in the 85+ billion a year range with no end in sight.  No thanks.

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30 minutes ago, SurelySerious said:

CDE numbers exist for unguided munitions. It can be done.

True but our strategy (for lack of a better word) requires restraint,  if it comes to needing cluster bombs, MOABs and napalm I'm ok with it but until then shoot carefully  

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30 minutes ago, SurelySerious said: CDE numbers exist for unguided munitions. It can be done.

True but our strategy (for lack of a better word) requires restraint,  if it comes to needing cluster bombs, MOABs and napalm I'm ok with it but until then shoot carefully  

56650ee844952_ImageUploadedByBaseopsNetw

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22 hours ago, gearpig said:

Woah. Mind-blowing and infuriating. He certainly did his homework. Great post.

Yet again, we're betting on the wrong horse with out politics. Turkey uses us and takes advantage of our need for a base, and we still take their crap? When Israel is siding with Russia, that should tell us something.

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7 hours ago, MD said:

Yet again, we're betting on the wrong horse with out politics. Turkey uses us and takes advantage of our need for a base, and we still take their crap? When Israel is siding with Russia, that should tell us something.

2

While it might be a pain in the arse, operating out of Greece is possible, numerous bases and put another carrier on station.  Cut the need for Incirlik and send a message to the new Sultan.

Greece will let us operate there for some euros (a lot of euros) and set up a massive refugee relief operation there for humanitarian and PA purposes, making the point that Erdogan sucks and is not needed, not that he actually does shit to stop ISIS anyway.

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He and the rest of the "Freedom and Justice" party cronies are looking for an Ottoman Empire 2.0 including putting their tentacles into the Balkans, Europe should be wise and start to put him into check.  Turkey's further integration while they flirt with quasi Islamism at the expense classic liberal values needs to be paused. 

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