Saddle up for Syria? Or Op Deny Christmas '13

[SurelySerious]

ISIS rot

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/the-islamic-state-is-fraying-from-within/2015/03/08/0003a2e0-c276-11e4-a188-8e4971d37a8d_story.html?hpid=z1

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This is pretty much what The Atlantic article said was most likely: it will fall apart from within. Hopefully it continues.

[11F]

Stoked to hear this, but as we are well aware, this "rot" often leads to a reorganization and resurgence.

Credit where credit is due though -- USAF Airpower!

[Clark Griswold]

This is pretty much what The Atlantic article said was most likely: it will fall apart from within. Hopefully it continues.

Yep, hopefully.

On the idea of continuing to encourage in-fighting, desertion, disillusion, etc... I found this article:

Returning ISIS Fighters: Forgiveness or Punishment

Question for the thread, is this suicidal or smart? Of course it is all in the interrogation / vetting when they return from Syria but even if you can be reasonably sure they didn't commit a crime against humanity, is it possible to trust / forgive someone who fought with an enemy of the civilized world?

[Fuzz]

I think the case could be made for guys that initially went over to fight for the FSA or other rebel group against Asad, and then got stuck when their groups either folded or surrendered to ISIS or it's allies. They would have to be vetted to make sure they didn't join the animals. However, ISIS quickly made their intentions and MO known, so anyone that went to join the "caliphate" is guilty by association and willingness to join the filth. Deny them re-entry and force them back to the hell hole they helped create at least we can effectively deal with them there (I.e. warheads on foreheads).

[Majestik Møøse]

...is it possible to trust / forgive someone who fought with an enemy of the civilized world?

No. Let them die by 30mm and Tweet the HUD tapes. This is the 21st Century equivalent of placing their heads on a pike outside the city gates.

[tac airlifter]

Yep, hopefully.

On the idea of continuing to encourage in-fighting, desertion, disillusion, etc... I found this article:

Returning ISIS Fighters: Forgiveness or Punishment

Question for the thread, is this suicidal or smart? Of course it is all in the interrogation / vetting when they return from Syria but even if you can be reasonably sure they didn't commit a crime against humanity, is it possible to trust / forgive someone who fought with an enemy of the civilized world?

Nope, we should kill them all. First off, you can't ever be sure they didn't participate in the acts of barbarity IS rejoices in. Secondly, radicals have been known for years to openly endorse lying as a means of maneuver so you can never trust that you aren't welcoming sleeper agents. Third, the european out briefs I've read from those who return indicate the deserters don't reject a caliphate or violence as a means to establish it but rather the particular ways IS has done business. This is important when considering reintegration because these guys still buy into the concept.... They just didn't like the way this one played out; so what's to stop them from returning later if/when appropriately inspired?

Finally, for years I've been listening to folks say we can't kill our way to victory. But we haven't tried, and frankly I think it's a valid TTP. All the COIN talk and reintegration and hearts and minds, etc. In the right time and place may be appropriate, but we can't leverage those tools to our advantage unless we're first in a position of strength; one attained by killing enough enemy to stress their organization. They've absorbed our attacks better than we would absorb similarly porportional inflictions. I think with these guys, we can and should kill our way to victory. Kill everyone who deserts and trap the rest in NE Syria and let Assad deal with it. This isn't an impossible problem, we just need the stomach to execute at higher levels, because the line guys are willing and able.

[pintail21]

Yep, hopefully.

On the idea of continuing to encourage in-fighting, desertion, disillusion, etc... I found this article:

Returning ISIS Fighters: Forgiveness or Punishment

Question for the thread, is this suicidal or smart? Of course it is all in the interrogation / vetting when they return from Syria but even if you can be reasonably sure they didn't commit a crime against humanity, is it possible to trust / forgive someone who fought with an enemy of the civilized world?

Do you think we adequately dealt with every Nazi or Japanese soldier? You can't look someone up forever for simply being associated with the wrong group. There's plenty of evidence that a lot of these recruits were mislead and outright lied to and want to come back home. That's an intel gold mine, why wouldn't we want in on it? Give them an out and remove the enemy from the battlefield and weaken ISIS through every means possible.

If there's anything the recent leaks have told us is these guys are going to be tracked for a long time by a number and if they want to try to be a sleeper cell then the best thing they can do for us is come back and try to link up with their buds.

[Clark Griswold]

I think the case could be made for guys that initially went over to fight for the FSA or other rebel group against Asad, and then got stuck when their groups either folded or surrendered to ISIS or it's allies. They would have to be vetted to make sure they didn't join the animals. However, ISIS quickly made their intentions and MO known, so anyone that went to join the "caliphate" is guilty by association and willingness to join the filth. Deny them re-entry and force them back to the hell hole they helped create at least we can effectively deal with them there (I.e. warheads on foreheads).

No. Let them die by 30mm and Tweet the HUD tapes. This is the 21st Century equivalent of placing their heads on a pike outside the city gates.

Nope, we should kill them all. First off, you can't ever be sure they didn't participate in the acts of barbarity IS rejoices in. Secondly, radicals have been known for years to openly endorse lying as a means of maneuver so you can never trust that you aren't welcoming sleeper agents. Third, the european out briefs I've read from those who return indicate the deserters don't reject a caliphate or violence as a means to establish it but rather the particular ways IS has done business. This is important when considering reintegration because these guys still buy into the concept.... They just didn't like the way this one played out; so what's to stop them from returning later if/when appropriately inspired?

Finally, for years I've been listening to folks say we can't kill our way to victory. But we haven't tried, and frankly I think it's a valid TTP. All the COIN talk and reintegration and hearts and minds, etc. In the right time and place may be appropriate, but we can't leverage those tools to our advantage unless we're first in a position of strength; one attained by killing enough enemy to stress their organization. They've absorbed our attacks better than we would absorb similarly porportional inflictions. I think with these guys, we can and should kill our way to victory. Kill everyone who deserts and trap the rest in NE Syria and let Assad deal with it. This isn't an impossible problem, we just need the stomach to execute at higher levels, because the line guys are willing and able.

Do you think we adequately dealt with every Nazi or Japanese soldier? You can't look someone up forever for simply being associated with the wrong group. There's plenty of evidence that a lot of these recruits were mislead and outright lied to and want to come back home. That's an intel gold mine, why wouldn't we want in on it? Give them an out and remove the enemy from the battlefield and weaken ISIS through every means possible.

If there's anything the recent leaks have told us is these guys are going to be tracked for a long time by a number and if they want to try to be a sleeper cell then the best thing they can do for us is come back and try to link up with their buds.

Looking to hear other opinions and all valid points.

Me, kind of on the fence about it and I don't have a problem with trying to bomb the shit the out of anything with an ISIS stink to it and I see the argument that they made a choice now they have to live by it with that meaning that their ISIS affiliation is probably a death sentence and / or they have forfeited their citizenship but.... if they were young, naive and stupid as a sack of rocks and went there then realized the err of their ways, is surrender not possible? I thought about this after reading the Atlantic article, pretty much it's a cult with a mega shit ton of weapons, cash and no morals, they brainwash their soldiers but even after all that, some of them wake up and realize it's all bullshit. If we give them an out, I think that could crack their facade that attracts the disaffected from Europe, ME, etc...

Tacairlifter - haven't had a chance to see a presentation on out-briefs of former ISIS jihadis but that is somewhat surprising and depressing, if that's the case with someone and they freely admit that then the case can be made I think to strip citizenship and expel permanently from their country of origin. Also, I'll go back to an early argument I made that Assad was / is bad but he is an angel leading a heavenly choir compared to ISIS, Al-Nusra front, etc... it would be impossible for this administration to admit it and the govs of Western Europe too, but thru a proxy, funneling cash, weapons and intel to Assad is probably the least worst option available. Tell his neighbors who hate him to go pound sand and just deal with it, diplomatically of course.

Edited March 10, 2015 by Clark Griswold

[Fuzz]

We were all "young and dumb" at one point in our lives and did dumb things; running away, traveling half way around the world, and joining a group of known psychopaths is not being "young and dumb" and if that is their version of it we don't need that in our countries.

[Clark Griswold]

We were all "young and dumb" at one point in our lives and did dumb things; running away, traveling half way around the world, and joining a group of known psychopaths is not being "young and dumb" and if that is their version of it we don't need that in our countries.

Can't say that I disagree with that, just interested in what others thought about allowing any of them to repatriate.

On a subject related to ISIS being introduced to either 30mm or a PGM, the Iraqis seem to be making steady progress and I saw this little gem.

Iraqi air force EC-635 in action near Tikrit

[waveshaper]

Update; US/Turkish supported Division 30 Syrian Rebels first combat operation?

It seems that these "Division 30 Syrian Rebels" that Al Nusra just KIA/WIA/captured were part of the 60 "elite" US/Turkish vetted/trained/equipped Syrian Rebels. This attack appears to have taken place in the Syrian town of Azaz, which is located in the US/Turkish "newly" proposed Syrian "Safe Zone". I also wonder if any of these US trained Syrian Rebels changed teams "again". If these reports are true, it's a really good return on our initial $500 million investment.

The Long War Journal; 31 July.

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2015/07/al-qaedas-branch-in-syria-says-it-captured-us-backed-rebels.php

Excerpts;

It is not clear how many fighters have been supposedly captured, but Al Nusrah says they are part of an American scheme that is opposed to the interests of the Syrian people. Al Qaeda’s branch claims the men entered the war “a few days ago” after “completing the training program” and accuses them of trying to form “the nucleus” of a “national army.” Al Nusrah blasts America’s attempt to bolster the “moderate opposition.”

SOHR’s reporting also lends credence to Al Nusrah’s description of the rebel faction, saying that “50 members of the Division 30 entered Syria in July…after finishing from a training course by western countries in Turkey.”

A separate statement attributed to Division 30 and published online earlier today said that al Qaeda’s jihadists began their assault early this morning. Several Division 30 rebels were killed in the fighting, according to the message.

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/198883#.Vbyf95vbIqR

Excerpts;

Eight of them, including a commander, were kidnapped on Thursday by Nusra. Division 30 denounced the kidnapping of Colonel Nadim Hassan and his companions, demanding "the brothers of Al-Nusra Front to liberate them immediately.

Al-Qaeda's Syrian affiliate Nusra Front launched an offensive Friday on the headquarters of a new US-formed rebel group in the country's north, leaving at least 11 dead, a monitor said.

The attack came one day after Nusra kidnapped eight rebels from Division 30, who had been trained and equipped by Washington, said the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitoring group.

Nusra launched the attack to seize weapons "given by Washington to the rebels". At least 54 members of Division 30 entered Syria in mid-July, equipped with 30 American-made all-terrain vehicles, arms, and ammunition.

Video; Division 30.

[Clark Griswold]

Russians in Syria... at this point does it matter?

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/09/world/europe/us-moves-to-block-russian-military-buildup-in-syria.html?_r=0

 

[guineapigfury]

It does.  The Russians are a shell of their Cold War selves, but they're still a shell with nukes.  They probably wouldn't appreciate their dudes getting killed.  I don't think they'd go full retard, but they might cut off energy supplies to Western Europe right as winter hits.  They'll let the Germans suffer for a few weeks, then offer to turn the spigots back on if we leave Assad alone.  They'll point out he's not nearly as bad as ISIS after all and this would reduce that nasty refugee problem that's been in the news so much.  They're gambling that with us having an election upcoming, the current administration will opt to declare victory and go home so the issue disappears before the primaries.  How Obama reacts, I have no idea.

[SurelySerious]

How Obama reacts, I have no idea.

 

[Majestik Møøse]

Can somebody explain why Russia gives a shit about Assad?

[Lawman]

Can somebody explain why Russia gives a shit about Assad?

Mediterranean port for operations of the Black Sea Fleet once they get though the Dardanelles....

Long standing arms deals of their highest end equipment (SA-15 for example)....

Generally just liking to take the opposite stand point and stick it in America/NATOs craw for the last 60 years, especially after we spent a decade telling them what to do in Chechnya....

Lots of reasons.

[Stiffler]

It does.  The Russians are a shell of their Cold War selves, but they're still a shell with nukes.  They probably wouldn't appreciate their dudes getting killed.  I don't think they'd go full retard, but they might cut off energy supplies to Western Europe right as winter hits.  They'll let the Germans suffer for a few weeks, then offer to turn the spigots back on if we leave Assad alone.  They'll point out he's not nearly as bad as ISIS after all and this would reduce that nasty refugee problem that's been in the news so much.  They're gambling that with us having an election upcoming, the current administration will opt to declare victory and go home so the issue disappears before the primaries.  How Obama reacts, I have no idea.

Assad created ISIS.  Both literally and figuratively.... people hate dictatorships, they all fall eventually.  But since we didnt support the real moderate opposition (Doctors lawyers and pharmacists and obama infamously said) now we are left with ISIS.  Assad can never regain control of his country, even with Russia. 

[guineapigfury]

If you're a generic Middle Eastern Autocrat a bloodthirsty but not particularly effective opposition is a useful thing.  Moderate opposition might get US support, best to let the extremist opposition wipe them out.  Then he plays the guy "who can be reasoned with".

[Clark Griswold]

It does.  The Russians are a shell of their Cold War selves, but they're still a shell with nukes.  They probably wouldn't appreciate their dudes getting killed.  I don't think they'd go full retard, but they might cut off energy supplies to Western Europe right as winter hits.  They'll let the Germans suffer for a few weeks, then offer to turn the spigots back on if we leave Assad alone.  They'll point out he's not nearly as bad as ISIS after all and this would reduce that nasty refugee problem that's been in the news so much.  They're gambling that with us having an election upcoming, the current administration will opt to declare victory and go home so the issue disappears before the primaries.  How Obama reacts, I have no idea.

They might get deeper in the mire but this will distract attention, resources and efforts from Eastern Ukraine.  They may play the energy card but they need cash more than they need to scare the Europeans so I think Gazprom will keep the NG flowing but history is replete with stupid decisions so there's always a chance of that.  

Asad is annoying and a tool of Iran but screw it, ISIS needs a royal ass kicking not just because they're a bunch of crazy murderous a-holes but because the global jihadi movement needs the winds taken out of its sails.  Russia has a TTP - kill everybody and who cares what anyone thinks, not moral but can be effective ref Checnya, sometimes not though ref. Afghanistan.

Round 2 of the GWOT:

Russia kills ISIS.

We keep the Taliban at bay.

France keeps the jihadis down in Mali.

Drones as required everywhere else.

Trace the money, tap the phones, intercept the e-mails, hack their servers and never apologize for fighting Islamic Fascists.

Post Script:

Good article on a proposed COA, take their capitol and empower players emasculated / disbanded by ISIS

http://warontherocks.com/2015/09/the-case-for-a-raqqa-first-strategy-against-the-islamic-state/

BL - do something, the Europeans should get all over this to stop the refugee flow, or at least part of it.

Edited September 10, 2015 by Clark Griswold

[waveshaper]

Russia is reportedly sending advanced anti-aircraft, Pantsir-S (SA-22 Greyhound), missile systems to Syria.

Excerpt; The anti-aircraft system would be operated by Russian troops, rather than Syrians, the Western officials said.

http://www.military.com/daily-news/2015/09/12/reports-say-russia-moving-anti-aircraft-system-into-syria.html

[afthunderchief16]

Russia is reportedly sending advanced anti-aircraft, Pantsir-S (SA-22 Greyhound), missile systems to Syria.

Excerpt; The anti-aircraft system would be operated by Russian troops, rather than Syrians, the Western officials said.

http://www.military.com/daily-news/2015/09/12/reports-say-russia-moving-anti-aircraft-system-into-syria.html

Not necessarily new, the Syrians have already had the Pantsir-S for years. The only thing that'll change is now there is someone in Syria that actually knows how to use them...

[Clark Griswold]

Russia is reportedly sending advanced anti-aircraft, Pantsir-S (SA-22 Greyhound), missile systems to Syria.

Not necessarily new, the Syrians have already had the Pantsir-S for years. The only thing that'll change is now there is someone in Syria that actually knows how to use them...

Syria (or Al Asad's forces more precisely) know how, it's what they probably used to bring down a Turkish RF-4 in 2012, this is just insurance to keep the Coalition (read U.S. forces) from attacking any sites that come up and maybe to start to push us out of the airspace, not to talk shit about the administration but I doubt they would start to target Al-Asad's forces if they think there is a chance they will kill Russian advisors, their risk aversion they showed in the fecklessness to supply any weapons or aid to Ukraine given the chance NATO supplied arms could have killed Russian soldiers is likely to be carried over here.

Let Russia arm Al-Asad, protest if you want publicly but privately let him wipe out ISIS and live with the lesser of two evils.

 

[StoleIt]

 

Let Russia arm Al-Asad, protest if you want publicly but privately let him wipe out ISIS and live with the lesser of two evils.

 

This.

[Clark Griswold]

The world is grey Jack

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[waveshaper]

The Pilots (Navy) Fighting ISIS;

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/09/02/world/middleeast/portraits-fighter-pilots-isis.html?_r=0

Edited September 17, 2015 by waveshaper