Jump to content
DuckHunter

North Korea at it again

Recommended Posts

North Korea could unleash land invasion

WASHINGTON – North Korea's nuclear threats are grabbing the world's attention. But if the North were to strike South Korea today, it would probably first try to savage Seoul with the men and missiles of its huge conventional army.

The attack might well begin with artillery and missiles capable of hitting South Korea's capital with little or no warning. North Korea's vast cadre of commandos could try to infiltrate and cause chaos while the South tried to respond.

The hair-trigger nature of the danger is reflected in the pledge of preparedness that American ground forces stationed just below the North-South divide have lived by for decades: "Fight tonight."

If it came to war, destruction — civilian and military — would be heavy, even if the North held back whatever nuclear weapons it may have. The consensus American view, generally shared by allies, is that the South would prevail but at enormous human cost, including a refugee crisis on the Korean peninsula.

Fears of military conflict have increased this week, particularly regarding disputed waters off the western coast, after North Korea conducted an apparent nuclear test on Monday and then renounced the armistice that has kept relative peace between the Koreas. It has held since the two sides fought to a standstill — with the U.S. and the U.N. backing the South and China and Russia supporting the North — in the 1950-53 Korean War.

The North is threatening to respond in "self defense" if the U.N. Security Council imposes more sanctions as punishment for the nuclear test, which Washington and others say violated previous U.N. resolutions.

At the outset of the Korean War, which began 59 years ago next month, North Korean armor rolled across the border, catching the South by surprise. An emergency U.S. defense effort initially crumbled, and the North's forces almost succeeded in pushing the Americans off the tip of the peninsula.

U.S. and South Korean forces have had nearly six decades to anticipate how a renewed attack might unfold and how they would respond. The expectation is that the North would slip commandos, commonly called special operating forces, across the Demilitarized Zone that divides the North and South or into southern waters aboard small submarines to carry out sabotage and assassination.

In congressional testimony in March, the commander of U.S. forces in Korea, Gen. Walter L. Sharp, estimated that the North has more than 80,000 such commandos. He said it is the largest special operating force in the world, with "tough, well-trained and profoundly loyal troops" who are capable of clandestine missions such as sabotaging critical civilian infrastructure as well as attacking military targets.

The South has had glimpses of the commando capabilities. Until recent years the North would routinely infiltrate agents across the DMZ. One of its submarines ran aground in South Korea during a failed spying mission in 1996.

Sharp said North Korea's army is the world's fourth largest with 1.2 million troops on active duty, backed by as many as 7 million reserves, with an estimated 1,700 military aircraft, 800 naval vessels and more than 13,000 artillery pieces. The numbers do not tell the entire story, though. Much of the North's equipment is old and decrepit, and it lacks the high-tech reconnaissance capabilities of the South.

Sharp did not mention chemical weapons, but it is widely believed the North has a chemical capability that it could unleash in the early stages of a land war to demoralize defending forces and deny the use of mobilization centers, storage areas and military bases.

Complicating the defensive calculations of the South and its American allies is the immutable fact that Seoul, with a population of about 10 million, lies about 35 miles south of the DMZ — within easy range of much of the North's artillery.

"It's a very, very direct route. That's always been the problem, right from the early days," said Kerry Brown, an Asia analyst at London's Chatham House think tank. "It's very vulnerable to a sudden, savage all-out military attack."

Robert W. RisCassi, a retired four-star Army general who commanded U.S. forces in Korea from 1990-93, said in a telephone interview Friday that the North's navy is no match for the South's and its air forces are weak and overmatched. Resources, including fuel, are a major limitation for the North.

"They don't fly enough hours to be really proficient," RisCassi said of the North Korean air force.

North Korea can be reached by U.S. Air Force F-16 jets from bases in northern Japan in about 30 minutes, and a squadron of new-generation F-22 fighters should deploy to the southern Japan island of Okinawa on Saturday. North Korea has been shrilly critical of the F-22 deployment, announced well before this week's nuclear test, because the fighters — which are difficult to detect on radar and capable of cruising at supersonic speed — are seen by the North as a threat to its air defenses.

The U.S. Navy's 7th Fleet, based just south of Tokyo, has two destroyers focused on North Korea at all times, meaning they are either in the Sea of Japan or can get there on short notice.

RisCassi said Kim Jong Il, the reclusive leader of North Korea, lost any "bolt-out-of-the-blue" invasion option he may have enjoyed when U.S. and South Korean forces were placed on heightened alert earlier this week.

"Whether he wants to play that card, no one knows, but I think he knows that if he plays it, he's going to lose and he's going to lose North Korea," RisCassi said.

Although the U.S. has a relatively small ground force of about 28,500 troops in South Korea, the key to American support in the event of a sudden invasion would air and naval power. The U.S. has fighters, bombers and an array of other Air Force and Navy warplanes not only stationed in South Korea but also at bases in Japan, Guam and elsewhere in the Pacific.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
North Korea could unleash land invasion

To say the least, that would be a target-rich environment for our pointy nosed brothers stationed out there. On the other hand, Seoul is unfortunately close to NK and would be kinda screwed...I still think there's little motivation for an invasion at this point.

Edited by nsplayr

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ahh yes, the old NK sabre rattle. They wouldn't stand a chance. As the saying goes, "Amateurs study tactics, professionals study logistics". They might make a hell of a push initially (sts)

but their fuel and food would run out quickly. Unless of course China sided with them again.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,523637,00.html

Report: N. Korea Missile Arrives at Launch Site

SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea has moved its most advanced long-range missile to a new launch site and has banned ships from the waters off its west coast through the end of July, news reports said Monday, moves that threaten to exacerbate tensions on the peninsula.

The missile, which has arrived at the Dongchang-ni launch site on the northwest coast, is believed to be a version of the Taepodong-2 rocket that the North fired on April 5 saying it was a satellite launch, the South Korean Dong-a Ilbo newspaper reported.

The North could fire the missile as early as June 16 when South Korean President Lee Myung-bak and President Barack Obama hold a summit in Washington, the paper said, citing unidentified officials in Washington and Seoul.

Another mass-market South Korean paper, JoongAng Ilbo, carried a similar report.

The North has also designated a large area off its west coast as a "no-sail" zone through the end of next month, an indication Pyongyang could stage armed provocations around the disputed sea border, the South Korean Chosun Ilbo newspaper said, citing unidentified intelligence officials. The paper also said the North could launch the long-range missile in two weeks.

Seoul's Defense Ministry declined to confirm these reports, saying it does not comment on intelligence matters. But late last week, South Korean officials said U.S. satellites detected apparent preparations to transport a missile for a test launch.

A new missile launch would significantly exacerbate the tensions running high after the North's April rocket launch and its second-ever nuclear test last week. World powers have been discussing at the United Nations how to punish Pyongyang for the atomic blast.

The North's Taepodong-2 rocket flew about 2,000 miles on April 5. The missile being readied for a new launch is believed to be an intercontinental ballistic missile or ICBM with a range of up to 4,000 miles, the JoongAng Ilbo reported, citing an unnamed South Korean official.

That would put Alaska within striking range.

In late April, the North had threatened to conduct nuclear and ICBM tests unless the U.N. Security Council apologized for criticizing its rocket launch. Pyongyang conducted an underground atomic blast last week. On Friday, it also threatened to take a further "self-defensive" measure if it is provoked by the Security Council. That threat was seen as referring to an ICBM test.

North Korea has been building the new launch site at Dongchang-ni for years. Last year, Seoul's Defense Minister Lee Sang-hee told parliament that its construction was about 80 percent complete. Monday's newspaper reports said that the construction is near completion.

The North's missile and nuclear programs have been considered a top security concern for the region, though the regime is not yet believed to have mastered the technology to make a nuclear warhead small enough to mount on a missile.

North Korea conducted its first nuclear test in 2006. International negotiations aimed at ridding the North of nuclear capabilities have been stalled since last year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There has to be a point to all this, I just wonder when NK will just come out and say what has got their panties all in a wad (I'm not convinced it's just because of the ship searches)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
To say the least, that would be a target-rich environment for our pointy nosed brothers stationed out there. On the other hand, Seoul is unfortunately close to NK and would be kinda screwed...I still think there's little motivation for an invasion at this point.

I'd bet the boys on Guam would get a hell of a chance for some carpet bombing, too.

If it happened, I'm not so sure the Chinese would get involved. Everything I've heard seems to say they've tacitly washed their hands of the Jonger and his cronies.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
To what extent do you think China could help NK? Would Russia likely get involved?

Neither would help NK. They don't want war either, if Jonger sets off the nukes then the fallout will float into their territory.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Haha. "Fight's on??" Seriously?

Ok, you beat me...damn, foiled by a dork on wikipedia again! I'm just saying there's a shit-load of DAK's in (excuse me, in and around) Seoul. I agree with you,...just highlighting that artillery's going to kill a TON more people than most American's realize, having never been to this gem of a country.

Still want to quibble about the trivial? Try to overfly Seoul and point at where Seoul ends and Gyeonggi-do starts. Good luck.

Person A: Blah blah blah Fact XYZ blah blah blah

Person B: Uh actually that isn't correct. It's more like ABC

Person A: Fact XYZ + source, Fact ABC + source shows a minor grammar difference

Person B: You are such a dork. Ok, you win.

Person A: <mumbles without typing: "jack@ss.">

Person B: <mumbles without typing: "jack@ss.">

Can't we all just get along?

Besides...it's 24.5 million, not 25 million...

There has to be a point to all this, I just wonder when NK will just come out and say what has got their panties all in a wad (I'm not convinced it's just because of the ship searches)

When was the last time Kim Jon Il said anything publicly? Perhaps one last hurrah before he follows his father? The South would undoubtedly prevail with the U.S.'s help. N Korea doesn't have the capacity to sustain a conflict. Without China and Russia, they are on their own and they can't sustain the military growth at the expense of their people. Personally, I think the populace is beyond saving. They cannot possibly mount a revolution because they are so beat down and tired.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Neither would help NK. They don't want war either, if Jonger sets off the nukes then the fallout will float into their territory.

What would be the point of nuking the south? Chemical weapons? Sure. But nukes would destroy the industrial base, which is the real prize for the chonger.

Besides all this saber rattling to get the DPRK back in the fore-front of US foreign efforts and garner aide to his population; the only way he invades the south IMHO is if he feels a threat to his seat of power. Talk of things like regime change and threats to his legitimacy as ruler could set him off.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We deployed to Korea in 1998 along with some Strike Eagles when the Navy moved an aircraft carrier from Japan to the Persian Gulf to keep Saddam in check, (funny that two AC-130s and some Strike Eagles can replace a carrier, but a discussion for another thread). About a week after we get there the guys find a statement in the North's propaganda rag that went something like this..."The imperialist Americans have sent their helicopter gunship wardogs wreaking of gunpowder..."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Neither would help NK. They don't want war either, if Jonger sets off the nukes then the fallout will float into their territory.

Agreed, that neither would help with direct military involvement, but I do think that both would supply (give or sell) NK all the weapons they need. Russia still sees a need to mess in the politics of border states.

Edit: clarity

Edited by Herk Driver

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
What would be the point of nuking the south? Chemical weapons? Sure. But nukes would destroy the industrial base, which is the real prize for the chonger.

Besides all this saber rattling to get the DPRK back in the fore-front of US foreign efforts and garner aide to his population; the only way he invades the south IMHO is if he feels a threat to his seat of power. Talk of things like regime change and threats to his legitimacy as ruler could set him off.

Agreed that there is no value for them in nuking someone. Just saying that having conflict on your border isn't a good thing, even if you're not involved.

Agreed, that neither would help with direct military involvement, but I do think that both would supply (give or sell) NK all the weapons they need. Russia still sees a need to mess in the politics of border states.

Edit: clarity

In violation of weapons sanctions that they approved in the Security Council? There are some Cold War holdovers that Russia/China like to mess with, but this isn't one of them. North Korea truly is isolated.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
In violation of weapons sanctions that they approved in the Security Council? There are some Cold War holdovers that Russia/China like to mess with, but this isn't one of them. North Korea truly is isolated.

That may be, but there are other instances where they have done exactly this. We'll never know until it happens or not. I agree that they are isolated, but when war breaks out that tends to get people to take sides one way or another and what might have been OK yesterday might not be today. Yet, another reason that I don't think NK will do anything stupid, but we'll have to wait and see.

No doubt, we wouldn't have a branch plan for this since it can't happen.

Edited by Herk Driver

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest whyme?
Picture a Korean saying the word "imperialist" and try not to laugh, seriously.

hell picturing or hearing them say pork fried rice is funny. That made me spit my coke out. Im peeeer ree iiiiist

On a serious note did anyone see the blurb on Fox news regarding the Extended Range SA-5 they say will now travel 140 miles?

Edited by whyme?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

hell picturing or hearing them say pork fried rice is funny. That made me spit my coke out. Im peeeer ree iiiiist

Now I can't go and have Tai food at lunch without thinking about that line. That and the Chinese place around the corner if off limits too.

Glad I'm not at my former base where there was a Korean place..........I'd probably get thrown out of the place.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just wait until they ask if you'd like a bowl of roasted peanuts... and not pronounce the "t". Just try not to kick thier butts, if you're not laughing yours off. :thumbsup:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Japan warns that North Korea may fire missile at U.S. on Independence Day

By Mail Foreign Service

Last updated at 4:55 PM on 18th June 2009

North Korea may launch a long-range ballistic missile towards Hawaii on American Independence Day, according to Japanese intelligence officials. The missile, believed to be a Taepodong-2 with a range of up to 4,000 miles, would be launched in early July from the Dongchang-ni site on the north-western coast of the secretive country. Intelligence analysts do not believe the device would be capable of hitting Hawaii's main islands, which are 4,500 miles from North Korea. Details of the launch came from the Japan's best-selling newspaper, Yomiuri Shimbun. Both Japanese intelligence and U.S. reconnaissance satellites have collated information pointing to the launch, according to the report.

This is North Korea's Taepodong-2 missile which has a range of 4,000 miles. Intelligence analysts do not believe it would be capable of hitting Hawaii which is 4,500 miles away. It is understood the communist state is likely to fire the missile between July 4 and 8. A launch on July 4 would coincide with Independence Day in the States. It would also be the 15th anniversary of North Korean president Kim Il-Sung's death.

The Japanese newspaper also noted that North Korea had fired its first Taepodong-2 missile on July 4, 2006.

Officials had initially believed that North Korea might attempt to launch a similar device towards either Japan's Okinawa island, Guam or Hawaii. But the ministry concluded launches toward Okinawa or Guam were 'extremely unlikely' because the first-stage booster could drop into waters off China, agitating Beijing, or hit western Japanese territory. If the missile were fired in the direction of Hawaii, the booster could drop in the Sea of Japan. News of the launch would put 'enormous military pressure on the United States,' the Yomiuri said, citing the ministry report. A missile fired from North Korea would have to travel 4,500 miles before it reached the U.S. state of Hawaii.

A spokesman for the Japanese Defense Ministry declined to comment on the report. South Korea's Defense Ministry and the National Intelligence Service - the country's main spy agency - said they could not confirm it. Tension on the divided Korean peninsula has risen markedly since the North, led by Kim Jong-il, conducted two nuclear tests this year in defiance of repeated international warnings. The first rocket, fired in April, was widely seen as a disguised long-range missile test. A second launch came on May 25.

U.S. satellite intelligence has shown that a missile launch pad had been erected at Dongchang-ri on North Korea's north-west coast.

General James Cartwright, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said it would take at least three to five years for North Korea to pose a real threat to the U.S. west coast. The UN Security Council last week authorised member states to inspect North Korean sea, air and land cargo, requiring them to seize and destroy goods shipped that violate the sanctions against arms export. On Saturday, in response to this declaration Pyongyang said it would bolster its nuclear programs and threatened war. Growing tensions come as arms-watchdog the International Crisis Group (ICG) claimed North Korea has several thousand tonnes of chemical weapons it could mount on missiles. The report from the non-government organisation said they believed the North's army have about 2,500 to 5,000 tonnes of chemical weapons which include mustard gas, sarin and other deadly nerve agents. ICG also also warned South Korea may become a target.

'If there is an escalation of conflict and if military hostilities break out, there is a risk that they could be used. In conventional terms, North Korea is weak and they feel they might have to resort to using those,' said Daniel Pinkston, the ICG's representative in Seoul.

The North has been working on chemical weapons for decades and can deliver them through long-range artillery directed on Seoul which is home to about half of South Korea's 49 million people and via missiles that could hit all of the country.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/...ndence-Day.html

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest AirForceZip

That would be incredibly stupid on their part.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

North Korea Carries Out Controversial Rocket Launch

Hong Kong (CNN) -- North Korea surprised the international community Wednesday by launching a long-range rocket just days after suggesting it would be delayed, South Korea's Ministry of Defense said.

"Shortly after the liftoff, Aegis radar system in the Yellow Sea detected the move," a senior military official was quoted by South Korea's semi-official Yonhap press agency as saying. Yonhap added that President Lee Myung-bak has convened an emergency security meeting in Seoul.

The Japanese government confirmed to CNN by phone that it took place at 9.49 a.m. local time and passed over the island of Okinawa, though no action was taken to shoot it down. It said parts of the three-stage rocket came down in the sea off the Korean Peninsula, with another part dropping into the sea near the Philippines.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Osamu Fujimura told reporters at a press conference in Tokyo that Japan had demanded restraint from Pyongyang and that "it is extremely regrettable that North Korea forced the launch despite our protest. It is not acceptable and we strongly protest against it."

Wednesday's news comes as a surprise after North Korea announced Monday that it was extending the launch window into late December, citing technical issues in an engine. On Tuesday, satellite images purportedly showed the rocket being moved from the launch pad, Yonhap said.

The test has been widely condemned by other countries like the United States and South Korea, which say it is a cover for testing ballistic missile technology. The North insists the launch is aimed at putting a scientific satellite into orbit.

When it announced its plans on December 1, the reclusive North Korean regime said it intended to carry out the launch between Monday and December 22. But on Saturday, the state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said the launch could be delayed.

In a new article Monday, KCNA reported that scientists and technicians had "found technical deficiency in the first-stage control engine module of the rocket," citing a spokesman for the Korean Committee of Space Technology.

Previous launch attempts by the North in 2006 and 2009 also failed to achieve their stated goal of putting a satellite into orbit and provoked international condemnation.

Pyongyang has said the planned rocket launch would be "true to the behests" of Kim Jong Il, the late North Korean leader and father of Kim Jong Un, head of the ruling regime.

Kim Jong Il died on December 17 last year, so the first anniversary of his death falls within the launch window that North Korea has announced.

Experts also speculate that Pyongyang wants this launch to happen before the end of 2012, the year that marks the centenary of the birth of Kim Il Sung, the founder of North Korea and grandfather of Kim Jong Un.

http://www.cnn.com/2....html?hpt=hp_c1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8UmPDhxLMUc

North Korea, already gearing up for yet another nuclear test, has posted a bizarre online video depicting New York under an apparent missile attack with "We Are the World" serving as a soundtrack.

The three-minute video posted on YouTube on Saturday was released by Uriminzokkiri, which distributes news and propaganda from North Korea’s state-run media. It features a young man in a dream sequence in which he sees himself aboard a North Korean space shuttle launched into orbit by the same type of rocket Pyongyang successfully launched in December. A densely populated city, which is shrouded in a U.S. flag, is then depicted to the tune of “We Are the World,” the charity single recorded in 1985.

“Somewhere in the United States, black clouds of smoke are billowing,” reads a caption translated from Korean. “It seems that the nest of wickedness is ablaze with the fire started by itself.”

The video concludes with the young man saying his dream will “surely” come true. As of early Tuesday, it had been viewed more than 60,000 times.

“Despite all kinds of attempts by imperialists to isolate and crush us … never will anyone be able to stop the people marching toward a final victory,” a final caption reads.

Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton, in a statement to FoxNews.com, said the video is another "disturbing reminder" of what a nuclear-capable North Korea would mean to the world.

"The film is yet another disturbing reminder that a nuclear-capable North Korea is a threat in its region and worldwide."

- John Bolton, former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations

"The film is yet another disturbing reminder that a nuclear-capable North Korea is a threat in its region and worldwide," Bolton said. "We should not delude ourselves by thinking that Pyongyang will ever be negotiated out of that capability."

Doug Bandow, a senior fellow for Cato Institute specializing in foreign policy, said the “weird” video is proof that Pyongyang has entered the digital age.

“My first reaction is they are getting with the Internet age,” Bandow told FoxNews.com. “For years, they have used vivid imagery in their rhetoric — they once threatened to turn Seoul into a lake of fire — so they’ve figured out a way to put pictures to the rhetoric. But it doesn’t look to me to be more than an amplification of what they’ve said for years.”

The video is little more than “bluster,” Bandow said, and should not be seen as a threat to the United States.

“I think this is bluster,” he said. “The good news here is that while they’re evil, they’re not stupid. They know they would lose.”

Bruce Klinger, a senior research fellow for northeast Asia at the Heritage Foundation, said the “strange, amateurish” video does not directly warn of an impending attack, but rather suggests that “wouldn’t it be nice” if an assault on the United States were to occur.

“In a way, it’s very similar to all those North Korean propaganda posters of Uncle Sam being bayoneted or the U.S. Capitol dome being blown up,” Klinger told FoxNews.com. “In North Korea, death to Americans is a common theme.”

The video, Klinger said, is also yet another indication that Kim Jong Un’s regime will not be much different than that of his father and grandfather.

“It’s very consistent with decades of North Korean propaganda,” he said. “Things will not change under Kim Jong Un.”

U.S. State Department officials declined to comment on the video Tuesday.

Meanwhile, South Korea's U.N. ambassador said on Monday that a North Korean nuclear test is believed to be imminent. Ambassador Kim Sook said there are "very busy activities" taking place at North Korea's nuclear test site "and everybody's watching."

North Korea announced last month that it would conduct a nuclear test to protest Security Council sanctions toughened after a satellite launch in December that the U.S. and other critics said was a disguised test of banned missile technology. The council ordered North Korea in the sanctions resolution to refrain from a nuclear test or face "significant action."

Pyongyang's two previous nuclear tests, in 2006 and 2009, both occurred after it was condemned by the United Nations for rocket launches.

The sanctions — designed to derail the country's rogue nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs — bar North Korea from testing or using nuclear or ballistic missile technology, as well as from importing or exporting material for those programs.

The latest sanctions resolution again demanded that North Korea abandon its nuclear weapons program and cease launches. It slapped sanctions on North Korean companies and government agencies, including its space agency and several individuals.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now


×