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AirGuardianC141747

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AirGuardianC141747 last won the day on February 10

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About AirGuardianC141747

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  1. COVID19 brought some slowdown to the new airliners being produced such as the 797 (2 seats, but engineered for 1) and the Airbus pilotless vehicles if you will. Airbus flew several sorties recently, but with Pilots Monitoring of course, but it’s the initiative/research that is a solid endeavor going forward. Not saying we will be 0 pilot required any time soon, but the technology to cut the pilot force nearly in half within a decade was possible. 4 long haul pilots to 2 (1 asleep, 1 monitoring), 2 pilots to 1 same scenario. The MAX is back so at least they have new life longevity and of course Cargo will be the guinea pigs if this pilot reduction method is tested. 10 years was possible but doubtful with so much iron laying around the system to draw from, within 20 years definitely a higher probability. 2 worthless cents, but look around your Big Stupid Shutdown Cities: Plenty of hopeful graphs show 1% gains weekly on APC, but a guess is that it will plateau much earlier than we hope and never attain pre-COVID19 levels due to businesses having shutdown, consolidated or migrated to technology based initiatives. So many Big offices for sale, rent, empty with leases to pay, plumbing, electricity, janitorial, parking, insurance, etc with people at home creating their own work schedules who have managed to survive this debacle. Leisure and Holiday travel has its merits as people love their selfies around the world fulfilling their need to actually experience life as they have watched it go by for the past 9 months. Sure, Thanksgiving is having it’s boom hopefully right now but that’s domestically and maybe just a tad more than 50% of the travelers last year. Internationally you can just count years for that revival to be nearly what it was formerly. 22 year United FO great friend of mine could have chosen the Airbus running through Baltimore and several other hops daily, but chose the 73 for less hops, easier runs despite the cramped quarters. He was a 787 FO enjoying international once a week perhaps and now heading back to the salt mines - his words not mine. Unfortunately this has been 1 step forward 5 steps back for many. Once again just 2 worthless cents having come off a trip through Nashville, Los Angeles, Korea, China, Alaska and back to Chicago in 5 days. Next month Alaska, Hawaii, Australia, Korea, China ground hog day - not much has changed I imagine. It’s amazing to see aircraft at many cities all over mothballed and lying in wait for 6 months so far. A380s as an example may just have only one ferry flight left in them when able or just Can (cannibal) Birds at best.
  2. Would like to reiterate what many have said already. Don’t quit your current job as it puts food on the table and a roof over your heads. Get selected, make it thru all the training, etc. and still believe it’s your passion = fantastic. Do not pass the physical, UPT, etc and you may be in a much more vulnerable situation than ever before. Definitely take the gamble if it’s truly in you and don’t give up. Timing and having options reigns King. Nothing more Dangerous than a Man with Options. *Burned out at age 26 is kind of early to be burned out of most anything. Granted, it’s better to figure out your path earlier the better.
  3. So true. Superb Packaging would be great, but if the product alone is superb than I will continue to drink the awesome Cool Aid despite its packaging to be blunt. Function before fashion, always. Not always easy to be Fashionable and Functional.
  4. Flea - was there a mention of Company name, Batch number, etc or whatever needs to be included so y’all could check your wallets real quick? No use by dates? Don’t know if that was a thing I cannot recall, but being married for decades will do that to ya... That’s some crazy stuff.
  5. Never said Face to Face will all go away. You are all definitely correct it can’t be matched on any or many terms and the face to face in discussion was actually traveling somewhere and not across the street to Finance or your local cable/satellite complaint departments. Here is the rub: When has anything like this ever happened like these 6 months now going on 7... Reprogrammed and cost cutting on extreme measures. Totally obvious why Zoom/Skype/Face Time, etc, etc, in business never took off earlier I thought = The World was FORCED into it. Just let me know if/when has it ever become a requirement like now. Has it been ever forced upon you like this? It will eventually loosened its grip and things will flow more and more back to face to face on the business side. Wouldn’t you agree the most important contracts will demand face to face, then others incrementally no doubt as mentioned before. I hope your right and even better than 90% of preCOVID levels will be attained. That would be awesome and definitely what everyone is shooting for, but once again everyone here chose technology prior to this debacle and now we were forced. There have been more losses than wins, more real estate closures than Grand Openings list goes on and on. Definitely business will thrive again no doubt, but to be at the previous levels or greater will take longer than most are willing to believe. Like nature finds a way, businesses that are surviving are finding their way. Seems easier to fall than climb for the most part. Full Recovery by 2022, 23, 24, who knows. Here’s for having a far better 2021. At least it won’t be hard to beat for the majority. Bottom line, it’s just a single perspective and if I am totally wrong and I want to be wrong, we all WIN BIG and I prefer it.
  6. Actually liked M2’s choice of Fat Kids Country movie reference better than the super bad sequel attempt of Red Dawn. Horrible. Initially the enemy was Big Red Virus Country wasn’t it, before political pressure changed the paint schemes. Correct me if I’m wrong, it’s been awhile. Maybe Red Dawn III will be Big Red this go around.... too soon...
  7. Some more very well laid out points. I hope your right and I too believe it will come back just not near the levels it was preCovid. Leisure travel when the doors open, definitely a spike if people haven’t spent their extra income/resources during this virus just to stay afloat. Visiting relatives domestically will launch, international travel is totally restricted and no doubt a spike will be seen but it will take awhile and definitely plateau eventually below preCovid as unfortunately elders have decreased, a ton of business loss and now our older generations including myself (still no Facebook though) have become waaaay more savy on social media tools due to necessity and not curiosity. Medical has almost done a 180 on the normal visitation/in house patient care. Doctors forced to do eScripts(3% usage rate before shutdown, 95%+ now)) vs the human touch provided by thousands upon thousands of care workers who traveled before. My neighbor was one of the M-Fri every week travelers... Not a trip since this began... Businesses have learned more ways to conduct sales than ever before as they were forced assimilate and not the usual fat cutting measures done by the bean counters. This was a bean counters wet dream, now the Boss has been listening definitely more so. Nothing seems to be able to replace face to face and that will get back out there but doubtful it will ever be like it was. The entire world has just been reprogrammed from out-and-about to solitary confinement including simple ideas as face coverings - Reprogrammed. I would be itching to travel as well but the economics/Boss will decide what travel is really necessary and what can be done over the net with monumental cost savings such as air fare, hotel, rental car (they are hoping to survive), per-diem, etc. Big contracts only most likely. Travelers these past few months have been the bargain basement shoppers to include traveling with garbage bags, it’s insane and can’t believe I saw it several times. These aren’t the travelers we’re looking for, but beggars can’t be choosers. Being reliable and consistent is everything in this industry. Japan specifically indicated 1 year domestic at best, 3 years internationally at best was their forecast for basic profitability/survivability without cuts and initial growth. It’s all a crap shoot really as time will tell. Loads are tight here due to consolidation/less flights as everywhere else. Brick and mortar has and will continue to disappear. No Building costs, insurance, taxes, cleaning requirements, electricity/water bills, etc, etc, etc. Telecommute is boring for some totally agree, but many especially the younger groups seem to thrive on it. Totally makes sense if you structure your work patterns during the day and not be enslaved to a cubicle or office. Execute your day with an ear piece has been the norm so much more than before. It’s Freedom for many depending on your situation, lifestyle, mentality. Definitely reprogrammed in so many ways, good, bad and the ugly. It’s seems to be a long haul. *Just my take as I travel around and scan the environment on board aircraft and in the cities with all the for rent/for sale signs, nothing more. Totally 1 cent look.
  8. Agree as well, very well thought out. Here’s to us hoping for the best and everyone out there feeling this pain industry wise. Stay strong.
  9. Totally agree with you. My 9/11 statement was regarding the swing back to the air cargo worlds front doors for jobs. And I emphasized the reshaping of the industry with “quite a bit.” So now that you’re being very frank with graphs I will readjust accordingly and be more against the norm as most believe it would have clicked back by now or at least by Christmas. As your graphs indicate it’s basically still horrible. Vaccine or not it won’t snap back quickly at all. International flying is toast for 2-3 years and that’s not predicting pre-COVID levels that’s just a head above water survival rate and holding a profit and not booming. This will hurt much longer then initial thoughts.
  10. Excellent Advice, good stuff right there. See myself a Nick Offerman type/ Or at least Bacon obsessed. Appreciate the link. Thanks.
  11. 2 Parts to my response. 1st - Being sarcastic that it might be a Joint Service Ad, kidding of course, Joint Badge if you have ever seen one which was another hint. 2nd It just seemed reminiscent of the 80s MOVIE “Red Dawn” and it’s artwork/posters if you will. Americans, AK-47s, Hinds vs Mig-29s or whatever..... So THERE is where I transitioned from the stupid current ad to the somewhat Good OL Days if you will. No further connections—> I was just recalling how much more a tense environment (Cold War, you pick whatever period) in the 80s when people looked good (suits/polos, etc. Yeah, Some flash in there as well) but no pants hanging down just above your knees @ss out, tattoos on your face, majority of women sporting tattoos (at least choose wisely) as well as on their face, etc. Look at the selfie response, while funny it definitely portrays a lot of today’s lack of living your potential unless it’s off the hard work of your parents. 50s, 60s, 70s, 80s, kept their sh*t together despite 2 Big boys possibly going Nuke centric, they never fell to the ground, wept/cried/whined like so many during their elections back and forth Dem/Repub. Granted, I will say it’s not a generic Presidency, but it sure did knock the rust off the dormant anti-USA and those perceived as snakes are definitely out if the tall grass not hiding now and most definitely not keeping their sh*t together. Definitely not Presidential per previous definitions, but this was the work of one person and how much skin did he get under. Don’t be CNN, ABC or whatever and mash things together unless you just didn’t understand the reference exactly as it’s typed: “Not for the Cold War, but for the era where the majority of folks looked good and kept their sh*t together.” And I will apologize for not being crystal, ultra clear. Now you might have a better idea with some thought or timeframe experience. I have included a much more insightful pic to what I was mentioning. No real reading required.
  12. Exactly, your selfie if that’s what you call it - says it all.
  13. Maybe it’s a Joint Effort. Good for Joint Badges, we don’t need no stinking badges. It’s definitely the original “Red Dawn” poster, but 29s instead of Hind’s (fake, but a very good effort at the time). AK’s raised in the air - Wolverines. Sorry, got nostalgic there. Not for the Cold War, but for the era where the majority of folks looked good and kept their sh*t together.
  14. I can see how many arrive at the skimming the top theory of “Having US in her pocket.” They haven’t always been fully supported by us. Historically they have done more than we have (or at least been more successful) when their country’s survival is at stake or their citizens are threatened/terrorized or Olympic athletes are murdered. Top notch War Fighters. Undeniably harder to protect yourself when your actually surrounded and not separated by large oceans. Movies portray whatever, discussing the matters at hand with actual citizens in their country is limited but interesting. Having flown C-141 missions in country many moons ago vs 747s now, political agendas come and go but the emphasis on Israel’s survival mentality has not to be sure. They didn’t execute few mentionable before cuz they were backed, they did it because it has been a life long nations struggle to do more than just survive. Note - We may sell them a lot of equipment, but a-lot of it is upgraded upon arrival. Watching them cram extra avionics package (Or whatever it might have been?) into a early model F-16 was very entertaining... As a former MX Officer in a F-16 Generation Squadron in the early days, it definitely was not any hardware we gave them... Very creative/cunning people, but you must be if your survival is at stake.
  15. By the way, Thank YOU For Your Service!!! That goes for all veterans current, prior and to those who have departed (Godspeed). Regardless of all of our various viewpoints, backgrounds, upbringing, professionalism and sense of duty/servitude. I always wish the best for everyone here and our Great country. We don’t always get along and that’s OK and that’s what makes this country Great! We are an incredibly diverse nation having most all of the worlds climates along with people from all walks of life inhabiting them under one nation. It appears the majority are all striving to get it right regardless of party, race or religion so sally forth with your convictions and your beliefs. It’s our right and we all understand it has been and always will be paid in blood.
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