afguy123
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Posts posted by afguy123
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On 4/12/2018 at 5:20 PM, Capt Ahab said:
Stats from 2018. To beat the average, I’d say you’d want to be over 80 PCSM still and getting your PPL doesn’t hurt. Also, really check out that thread from the year before for changes/consideration issues.
Do the people who run the board or whomever made this chart not know how to edit the y axis on an excel chart?
Does whomever posted this have the full slide deck with the other rated options?
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Looks like more than 76 too (edit count 84), the fact that it was altered is so disheartening for folks who weren't selected. Like what changed? Why were some people added?
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39 minutes ago, Hopeful_guy said:
76 pilots (7 ENJJPT), 6 RPA, 15 CSO, 15 ABM.
Where did you get this?
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33 minutes ago, calnav said:
Anyone else got any news?
Nothing yet. Strange.
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2 hours ago, Fryeguy6 said:
I could ask my Commander how many slots there were for each category but hopefully someone should be able to let you know of selection/non- election.
Please do. If whomever gets eyes-on the list first or is willing to ask their commander would post here how many slots there were for each category, I think many of us who are less likely to hear from our own commanders, would appreciate it. I'm sure people are tired of opening this forum to find another post that doesn't provide substantial information, but I think that would.
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Is everyone else still in the dark?
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15 minutes ago, Merlin said:
I can tell you that as a Strike WSO with an RCH over 900 hours, it has no bearing/impact on my PCSM. It all boils down to AFOQT, GPA (mine sucked as an egnineer, no rated slot from USAFA), TBAS (yeah give me a break on how that shows airmanship) and civilian flight hours. Ill be on my third AD board this year and it seems that PCSM is weighted very heavily over other "qualifying" factors. I was able to improve my PCSM slightly for this years board, however I finished my PPL, so it will be interesting to see how that will play into things. It seems to be more of a pipe dream at this point, and at the end of my ADSC the air force will probably shed another frustrated rated aircrew. Cheers for tomorrow, im going back to my scotch.
If you were not rated out of USAFA but are now a WSO does that mean in one of your first two AD boards you were offered that and accepted? If you don't mind sharing, what were the PCSM's during the respective years.
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Well we aren't gonna find out today! Good luck to everyone tomorrow.
Let's hope we either find out or they tell us early in the day that we won't be finding out...
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This is the week, or so we hope. Can we get some confirmation from the board as to the likelihood that we find out this week?
I'm not suggesting anyone call since they've said they don't want us to: but if anyone has/does please report what was conveyed.
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5 minutes ago, Hopeful_guy said:
What’s your AFSC? lol yeah, idk where the data was going when I stole it, AFROTC also has a 2 year lag so isn’t really current. I agree it could be good or bad for AD.
What do you mean there is a lag?
In 2014 and 2015, the AD slots accounted for 5.89 and 5.85% of the slots (I don't have the OTS slots but I assume the don't get that many to sway the data). Then there was the 2016 dip to 2.13%. In 2017 it rebounded to 6.60%. Using this number and a rough guess of USAFA slots using the mean of their previous four years, the initial estimate of 75 would give the AD 6.8% of the slots. That would be the highest in the past four years. 114 slots (again I think this is unreasonable, but it is what a linear regression would imply) would account for 9.99%.
You originally asked for a correlation. The ROTC and AD are most highly correlated at .76. AD and USAFA are next at .59. USAFA and ROTC are not correlated at all at .12.
No matter what it comes down to waiting for the numbers to drop and to see if we are individually on the list.
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1 hour ago, Hopeful_guy said:
Huge pilot drop in AFROTC.
Off the bat that looks really promising. However, the four complete years of data we have do not show a clear correlation (.76) and a relatively simple regression shows the ROTC variable not to be statistically significant (P value ~ .23) in predicting the AD variable. More data would make that conclusion more sound, but with what we have to go off of it just isn't conclusive. Nonetheless, the regression result would predict 114 pilot slots. That would be far more slots than any of us I think reasonably expect, further indicating the lack of a clear relationship between these data.
Another (pessimistic) way to look at this is that there is zero sum game in terms of the capacity concerns of pilot training. If they can only accept so many and if they added ROTC slots, well then where did they take the slots from? USAFA already found out their jobs and I didn't hear about a large drop from them so I think the last source would be the AD pool. (Edited to add this last part after googling the numbers): USAFA had pilot slots of 445, 360, 345, and 386 from 2014-2017. If you add the ROTC, AD, and USAFA numbers for the last four years you get 805, 780, 772, and 912. Using the most conservative USAFA number from the last four years to estimate the amount for this year of 345 and adding to it the ROTC slots of 643 you get a total of 988. That already exceeds the maximum number of slots given out in the previous four years without giving out any to AD folks yet.
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Just now, UPTapplicant2017 said:
FWIW - a friend of mine was just notified he got an AD slot today, however, he goes to the Norwich U military school up in Vermont - not sure if the application process is the same or not.
best of luck to everyone who applied!
if he is not currently an active duty officer than this process is completely different
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5 minutes ago, Dreamin21 said:
Someone posted that earlier in this thread 165 initial applications with 75 pilot, 30 RPA and they didn’t know how many split abm and CSO. Then again, that was before extending the application window for late médicals
Right. But we have zero idea if those are accurate and they had the opportunity to indicate if they are, they chose not to.
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17 minutes ago, Hopeful_guy said:
Posted to AF Portal
"Understand you all are anxious for the 2018 UFT results. We are seeking final approval from the AFPC/CC on up. Pushing for a 28Feb18 release. Standby for the release and please keep calls and emails on the matter to a minimum as we go through the proper channels of approval at this level. Should the PSDM not release by the end of the month, it will shortly thereafter. We greatly appreciate your patience on the matter."
I'm glad they finally posted something. But we all would have loved a hint at how it is looking this year in terms of slots. "Pushing for a 28Feb18 release with an estimated number of slots around the same as last year." At least that would make the wait easier I feel like.
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19 hours ago, Virginian90 said:
Same. Last year one of the Majors in charge of organizing the board got on here and updated the applicants on rough timelines :/
I feel like we all want the board to do this again this year. I'm not sure what they gain by not or what they would lose by being a bit more transparent.
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On 2/10/2018 at 11:48 PM, Warriorboy16 said:
I found out I got picked up on 13 Feb last year while driving home from work. The rest of the timeline checks, and I had a RIP within 2 weeks for both MFS and UPT
Good luck to all of you that applied
If you found out on Monday the 13th last year then that would correspond with today in terms of this year's timeline. Ideally someone from the board will post on here when the list gets pushed to commanders or someone will post as soon as the hear anything. But I think we will see a delay this year following them pushing back the deadline to apply.
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On 12/5/2017 at 8:22 PM, Hopeful_guy said:
Curious what effect the IFT issues/backup will have on selection this year. Anyone know if this is as huge of an issue as they make it seem?
I'm curious about this as well, I posted over in the general discussion forum. I hope you don't mind.
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I'm also interested in his question about retaking the AFOQT and seeing a change in the PCSM, do other people have data points for original AFOQT-PCSM scores and secondary AFOQT-PCSM scores?
2019 Air Force Active Duty UPT Board
in Pilot Selection Process
Posted
Found the full slide deck: https://www.my.af.mil/USAF/AFP40/d/s330D98A14DFE211B014E2178A7BD03FF/Files/editorial/UFT Statistics FY 14-18.pdf
And this is on the portal page: The UFT Board is tentatively scheduled to convene 14-16 Nov 18 with applications being due NLT 21 Sep 18.
That is a few months earlier than this past year when applications were due in November and the board did not meet until January.