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nsplayr last won the day on January 9

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About nsplayr

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  1. Lots of folks making assumptions based on Ferguson's work. Here's what he says himself re: the original modeling and the updates based on the steps the UK has already taken. BLUF: the model hasn't changed, the behavior of the country (UK) has changed and for the strongly positive. Strict social distancing and rapidly increasing ICU capacity were some of the measures Ferguson et al recommended, and those things so far are ongoing, which is good.
  2. I mean I'm gonna go with the advice of epidemiologists and health security professionals...although I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night. Just kidding, I stayed the f*ck home. Our economy will recover from a relatively short-duration shutdown to combat a critical health crisis, especially with proper support from the government. What won't recover is people's lives that are lost if we disregard the advice of people who actually know what they're talking about.
  3. The extremely-online liberal left will continue to do their social justice warrior thing regardless of who the party nominates for President if that's what your asking, just like radicals on the right keep doing their thing regardless of what the GOP does or doesn't do. There's a conversation to have as to whether any particular leader or administration is amplifying or tamping down the most dangerously radical parts of their coalition if that's what you're getting at. To answer what I think you're asking, I would say Biden and his team are less likely to be interested in pushing SJW causes and language norms than Bernie and especially some of his surrogates might be.
  4. He had a theory of the case, and that theory was the mass-mobilization of younger people. Bernie's policies and Bernie as a candidate poll very well among "younger" voters, i.e. anyone under 50, but surprise surprise, those people don't vote at high rates. Bernie did somewhat expand the gender and racial makeup of his base of supporters vs 2016 but it wasn't enough to overcome the very rapid consolidation in the more moderate lane of the party. In short, his strategy was similar to the Trump 2016 strategy: turn out people who don't usually vote and hope that "the establishment" stays fractured. Unfortunately for him on both counts, the Democratic "establishment" coalesced historically fast right before the biggest day on the primary calendar, and during high-turnout primaries, the new or infrequent voters who showed up chose to support Biden. Bernie is a politician and want to obtain the power to make the policies he favors happen, but his theory of how to do that in 2020 just did not work out. You are correct that Bernie is more ideological than the typical Presidential candidate - Trump was not very ideological and in fact seemed to hold a more mixed set of views than the GOP establishment (i.e. more like a "normal" person/voter), and Obama was successful at letting people paint their own policy preferences onto him vs pushing a super-strong point of view on policy. The Democratic Party nomination is effectively over and Joe Biden won by an even larger margin than Hillary did in 2016 and by a FAR larger margin than Obama won in 2008. Biden's delegate lead is deceptively large and the next states to vote are even more favorable to him than the many of the ones that have voted so far. There will not be a contested convention, although at this point there may not be a "convention" at all given all the social distancing measures being undertaken to avoid the spread of coronavirus.
  5. Tulsi polls around 2% so yea...stop trying to make Tulsi happen. It's not some secret conspiracy, she is just not popular. The DNC does not pick the party's candidate any more than the RNC picked Trump; the voters decide. In 2016 the GOP primary voters chose Trump against the wishes of many in the party, and in 2020 Dem primary voters decisively did not choose Tulsi. I will quibble with this in that Bernie is doing significantly worse than he did in 2016 and this nomination is over. Bernie does poll very well among "younger" voters, which I mean people under 50, but they don't vote nearly enough to outweigh the preferences of older voters. Many of Bernie's ideas poll well in the Democratic Party and the party has moved somewhat to the left ideologically compared to the Obama presidency, but Bernie never succeeded at expanding his coalition from 2016 and in fact lost over half of it 4 years later when other candidates not named "Clinton" were available to choose from. Due to tornado damage where I live, I waited > 2 hours in line to vote in my state's Super Tuesday primary. The old lady in front of me waited the same 2+ hours...to vote in the GOP primary that is not even remotely competitive! That's a hell of a commitment to voting and good on her. Barring some kind of black swan even in the primary, Biden will face Trump in November, and it's because his coalition within the party (older people, African Americans, etc.) actually votes.
  6. When I went through back in The Good Ole Days, "strike nav" training at P-cola was separated from "heavy nav/CSO" training at Randolph. And that tracking was based on "data" from your commissioning source. So kids were chosen to fly the strike eagle or bone based on...marching? Again...the more things change the more they stay the same. Hope it's working out well for all involved and producing a good product for the FTUs and combat squadrons.
  7. Nashville’s a hell of a town!
  8. https://www.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/2083450/wanted-ideas-on-space-force-members-name-ranks/fbclid/IwAR3h6VsR6Q6Y9wOqWlxYaBdx5TTNrWS8p8FFGi5skDItrQD1ECam-RYjGG4/ Gentlemen, you know what to do.
  9. Oh man I made a huge mistake yesterday...thanks for telling me now!
  10. If only there were an asset doing literally, exactly this right now 🧐 Maybe we should just update/upgrade/re-platform that capability and call it good. And it doesn’t have to be either/or when it comes to operating forward with a low footprint and being “centralized low-density.” SOF assets in other services are great examples where they are ADCON controlled by a handful of home station units/installations, are low density compared to conventional forces, yet operate very forward with little non-organic logistical support required.
  11. https://www.airforcemag.com/socoms-armed-overwatch-expected-to-replace-the-afsoc-u-28-fleet/ Well there ya go. @tac airlifter with the solid gouge as always!
  12. I've never heard a great answer to this: who will man these theoretical 75 new AFSOC aircraft? Last time I checked pilots are in relatively short supply Air Force-wide, and the CSO community is small enough that you can't just shit out like 200+ new CSOs/WSOs/whatever, especially if you want ones competent enough to fly a tactical, acrobatic, weapons-employing aircraft. I always asked this question when the rumor mill suggested that Guard MQ-9 units would also see light attack at their bases. I mean...cool...but how the F do you man that when half your officer force is 18X and your sensor operators are 100% enlisted? It never added up. No one is/was a bigger supporter of light attack than me; we should have done this 15 years ago and the second best time to do it is now. BUT, I'm not sure how it actually happens even if we wave a magic wand an 75 shiny new pieces of iron show up on the ramp at Hurby or Pope or wherever.
  13. Daaaamn that is nice. L3 Harris is (was?) 6 months of differential pay FWIW. Not sure if policy changed after the merger.
  14. As a former CSO (11 years) and current MQ-9 pilot (who originally got security forces to Minot out of ROTC!!), I'll say this: You've already done more than the vast majority of Americans ever will to support and defend the Constitution of our great country. So be proud of that #1, full stop. #2, you are a pilot. You're the aircraft commander of a multi-million dollar platform and your job is to hunt and kill people who threaten our soldiers and our citizen's way of life. Absolutely nothing to be ashamed of. Beyond the standard amount of ribbing your old man is by right allowed to give you, don't take his criticisms too seriously. Being an RPA pilot is not the same as a manned aircraft pilot, but don't sell yourself too short here. #3, like many other have said, go out and do some civilian flying, get your ratings and certificates, be the best damn MQ-9 pilot in your squadron, and push to attend UPT or punch at the end of your commitment and fly professionally on the civilian side if that's where your heart is. Based on a guess about your age, I'd say you have more than plenty of time to make manned flying a career. If you're really feeling ate up about this or anything else, seek out a good chaplain or mental health professional on base and get squared away upstairs. Best of luck to ya 🇺🇸
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