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nsplayr last won the day on April 20

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About nsplayr

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  1. WOW...1 SOW/CC who is being publically cheered by CSAF doesn’t make BG? WTF is up with that??
  2. nsplayr

    Pilot Shortage Deepens, USAF is SCREWED.

    Minor point, but Fed tax receipts data only goes through 2017 Q4 as far as I’ve seen and the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, signed into law in Dec of 2017, won’t be super notice let for workers until tax season 2019 for the CY2018. The only real thing you could potentially see so far is when Q1 data from the Fed comes out if receipts are higher or lower than Q4 of 2017 since withholdings for most workers have been adjusted and businesses would have paid their first quarter of taxes at the new rates. Like you mentioned however, it’s gonna hard to break out that signal one way or the other among the noise of the ebbs and flows of normal short-term economic expansion and contraction and also the long-term economic growth that has continued for many years now with only one quarter of data. Back to your regularly scheduled programming...
  3. nsplayr

    Military appreciation has jumped the shark

    Tennessee at one point included the Air Medal (meritorious) as one of the military plates that qualified for free lifetime registration and exemption from emissions testing. That ends up being about $100 per year for life. Word was the legislature quickly did a 180 once they saw the data on just how many Tennesseans has an Air Medal on their records (3x flying wings in the state ANG) i.e. lost revenue for the state! I simultaneously think it’s unwarranted for a relatively easy-to-come-by medal, while also knowing I would have absolutely gotten one had I lived in TN when that window of opportunity was open. Something about the duality of man... I agree with the general sentiment that the military appreciation oftentimes feels or should feel embarrassing for service members. People would much rather give you 10% off and unfurl an enourmas flag before kickoff if it means they don’t have to take your place on the front lines someday.
  4. nsplayr

    The new airline thread

    AAFMAA was significantly cheaper for much more coverage for me as an average dude, non-smoker in decent shape. YMMV.
  5. nsplayr

    Promotion and PRF Information

    Phew! Glad those two things were entirely separate. I thought we might be dealing with an R. Kelly-type situation here...
  6. nsplayr

    Accepted a CSO slot

    Sarcasm detector function check needed.
  7. nsplayr

    An article on a Blended Retirement System quirk

    My employer's 401(k) works the same way...they match per pay period so you have to actually contribute each pay period, i.e. don't max out early. From what I understand that is pretty common, is it not? Overall - recommend this get moved to one of the BRS or other retirement threads.
  8. nsplayr

    Iran Lied . . . No One Is Surprised

    I don’t agree that we could have gotten a substantially better deal but it’s a hypothetical that we’ll never be able to answer. The deal is what it is and we have to go forward. They had a fairly rapid breakout capability in 2015, but post-JCPOA its been 3 years, we’ve increased that breakout time, gained inspections and BL they don’t have the bomb. To me, that’s a win. I’m if you think we can unilaterally rip to the deal, turn back the clock to pre-JCPOA, apply new sanctions, and actually achieve a better outcome that doesn’t involve a costly war...call me skeptical. The link below is basically where I am re: missiles and other bad behavior. It would be great to address and we should try, but the lack of those issues in the JCPOA and the sunsets that were included doesn’t mean it wasn’t a step on the right direction. We negotiated breakout time up from < 1 year to > 10 years when it was signed without needing a war and while preserving our leverage on nukes after the sunsets run out and on other issues throughout. http://www.mei.edu/content/article/limit-irans-missiles-sure-first-come-plan
  9. nsplayr

    Iran Lied . . . No One Is Surprised

    I would agree that the fewer nuclear armed countries, the better. I'd disagree that helping the Saudis or Israelis strike is a good plan...not sure we need another regional/proxy war in the Middle East now or ever. I'm really interested to see if anyone can articulate a strategy for improving the situation re: Iran nukes/missiles/shennanigans that doesn't involve war. Obviously yea, just invade, regime chance and all those problems stop; but now you have all new and more costly problems. I'm not here to argue that JCPOA was perfect or even addresses all the pertinent issues, but I don't have a good feel for what a different strategy would be now other than war. If you were President Trump and wanted a better outcome, can you get there without strikes? CH's plan I guess is one...snap back sanctions and push internal discontent to overthrow the regime...
  10. nsplayr

    Iran Lied . . . No One Is Surprised

    I hear your points here, but #1 is immensely overshadowed by #3. We did return frozen assets, but they pale in comparison to the money they're making by selling oil. I didn't love the optics of literally shipping they money, but that was a relatively small concession as part of the overall deal. #2 is like saying that the deal didn't stop Iran from making peanut butter sandwiches. I mean, that's true, but that's not what the deal was about! The deal was about stopping them from making nuclear weapons, not limiting their ballistic missile programs. If we are able to negotiate limits to their ballistic missile programs under the current administration, that would be great & we should try. Not that you don't already know this, but #3 isn't a bug, it's a feature. This was the big concession that Iran wanted in order to make the rest of the deal palatable to them. Kindergarten explanation: stop nuke development and allow IAEA inspections, and we'll let you sell oil again. If we don't give them #3 we have no deal and this is all moot, so I'm not sure how you could have possibly negotiated otherwise. Isn't the whole purpose of diplomacy w/ hostile countries working toward a return to normal, peaceful relations? This deal was a step in that direction...we can't expect for them to agree to IAEA inspections while still living under a harsh sanctions regime if those were the two primary things being discussed. Lifting the sanctions was our leverage, it was the thing that they wanted that bought us the things we wanted. I could see arguing that it wasn't worth it, that we didn't negotiate well and what we gave up was more than what we got; if so then cool, understood. I will throw my hat in with Mattis and say it's an imperfect arms control agreement that could be improved but overall all sides seem to be complying with its terms. So if I'm paraphrasing you correctly, you'd like to go back to pre-JCPOA sanctions and give that some more time for an internal revolution against the mullahs? What's the plan if/when they start working toward a bomb again with no inspections? Are we confident we can detect all such activity and calculate their breakout time with any precision relying solely on intel penetrating their operations? To me it just seems like a setup for war, and given the past comments from high-ranking admin officials (especially Pompeo & Bolton) it seems like that's maybe their objective in the first place.
  11. nsplayr

    Iran Lied . . . No One Is Surprised

    I curious for any Iran hawks out there, what do you envision is the plan you’d rather pursue? I’m assuming decertify the JCPOA on 12 May...then what? Credit where credit’s due...DPRK’s recent peace overtures should be viewed very skeptically, but they are also promising. Much better to be negotiating peace and denuclearization, even warily, rather than threatening war IMHO. My view is that it’s mostly the same for Iran. They’re not a good regime and are involved in lots of other nefarious stuff (kinda like DPRK). But I’d rather enforce/amend/negotiate over the JCPOA rather than threaten war if that is indeed step 2 from above. In general I’m in the “do something” camp re: foreign policy without exactly being a hawk, and to me negotiating the JCPOA and now enforcing it while checking Iran’s bad behavior elsewhere is the something I’m a fan of doing. Honest question, not looking for a cookie-cutter left/right blackhole debate
  12. Man, that sucks dude. I have no idea why they let me through their vetting process but I guess it's a good heads up for next year if they decide to turn it off.
  13. I did, yea...have has both CSR (converted from a CSP) and Ink Business card for several years. IDK, try again with a different person maybe? I was surprised they waived mine since my active orders were short-term but hey, I'll take it!
  14. +1 to above Chase recently waived/refunded the annual fees on several cards that I have, including chase sapphire reserve. If you’re AD or on active orders in the Guard call them up.
  15. nsplayr

    What's wrong with the Air Force?

    Over 6,900 hours in the C-130. Nice.