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hindsight2020

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Everything posted by hindsight2020

  1. hindsight2020

    What's wrong with the Air Force?

    An AD OG not so many moons ago was yet again faced with that question as we BS'd amongst each other in the bread van on our way to the parking row. His response to the collective question about that proverbial technician/pilot track inquiry was : "We already have that, it's called the Guard/Reserves". As the sole Reservist in that van, I just quietly shook my head. They don't get it, and never will. For those who fell off the math bus, it is increasingly difficult to attain an Active Duty retirement by that metric. Not impossible, just laborious to a non-starter degree, given the nuances of double commuting and the pay/QOL deltas of major airline flying work. Furthermore, that second class treatment of the flying track disincentivizes the retention of tactical combat corporate knowledge, and dilutes the value of it (80 cents on the dollar by my last count, in the ARC), if one is to suspend disbelief for one second and assume 100% experience retention of separating members into the ARC component. And Lord knows it isn't...hell we have people quitting with no 20-year letters over ¡flu shots! I shit you not. Airlines are that frothy. A true technician track would allow someone to attain an active duty retirement while remaining in ops for the duration, with the recognition that O-5 may be just as scarce as it is in the FTS component of the ARC flying unit ecosystem. But recalcitrant AD just won't barter with their human property as a matter of principle, so we have what we have today. A completely fraudulent and gratuitous apathy toward point blank hemorrhaging of the experienced demographic. It is terrible stewardship of the People's money, and completely uninspiring as a fellow "pilot who happens to be an officer". This particular iteration of the see-saw has convinced me that nothing will change. If they are unwilling to stem the loss in this environment, there really isn't a single additional variable that would compel them to do so. They'll stop loss and then allow it to get worse, while they continue to run the clock offense until the next airline hiccup. The only people who could take them to task would be Congress, and they seem aloof as to the criticality of this manning deficit if we were to get mouth-punched with a peer fight today. So do your 12, fly your ass off, then punch to make whatever life and vocational priorities are the center piece of your life. We managed to pull ourselves out the ropes of Pearl Harbor like Rocky in the fourth movie, so I guess we can keep winging it like that when China sucker punches us. "Late to the melee...", the American Way it seems. LOL
  2. hindsight2020

    Herk Down

    Is Tinker depot part 145 though? I understand y'all are majority civil servants, but isn't Tinker still mickey mouse AF MX run, to include military procedural fucketry standard? Genuinely curious, wife's born/grew up in Midwest City and I dropped more BUFFs at TIK that I care to recall, so I'm familiar with the area.
  3. hindsight2020

    Promotion and PRF Information

    Your shitty PRF won't be a problem for O-5 in the Reserves, hell we promote convicted deviants. Your lack of ACSC in correspondence however, will 100% guarantee your non-promotion. I'm telling you, it's that binary. It's a matter of opportunity cost. A reserve retirement is not that lucrative when you have to wait for it until 60 (or high 50s as a disbursement buydown for certain 90 day chunks of orders post-2008), to the degree that O-4 vs O-5 would make a difference in your life. All you're doing with reaching for O-5 is increasing your MSD in the reserves, which for an airline guy may or may not be worthwhile, depending on if the airline treats you right or you get sodomized in the *next (not *if) airline musical chair stopping period. That's more of a airline timing and industry thing, than anything inherent to O-5 considerations on the mil side. Active duty retirement via the Reserves? Sure, you probably have an incentive to push through the bullshit ACSC side quest (which gets worse by the decade). Of course that also requires looking for O-5AGR in the line, where a lot of people time out waiting on a younger guy sitting ont the controlled position, and have to go looking for some retirement desk job just to get the TIG and go back to their airline. I'd certainly wouldn't do that just to get O-5 since I don't have a turbine job in my back pocket like MLOA airline guys do, but that's me and my reasons for sticking around in the military full time vice rummaging through civilian commercial aviation. So do ACSC, and you'll make O-5. Don't, and you won't. It's not the end of the world, but it is that simple. Meaning there's no decoder ring here like there is on Active Duty. No excuse for not knowing this in the AFRC side. I'm not defending it; I'm exceedingly UNINSPIRED by every administrative aspect of my career, and it is tough as an intelligent individual to accept that mediocrity. I'm only here because I'm still having fun in the flight line. They touch my "baby" single issue vote, and I vanish like a fart with the wind so fast all they'll see is the outline of my prior self like Wylie coyote. I digress, my point being, the outcome track is open source, so it's an easy decision to formulate in the ARC. No decoder ring needed.
  4. hindsight2020

    Join Spouse for UPT Studs

    See bolded. Bro, kudos on one of the most candid and on-point assessments of female military pilot dynamics out there. I've said that shit offline a couple times and get tar/feathered. It is def not a politically correct assessment, but it's hella repeatable and easy to illustrate for those without an axe to grind, let alone those who resemble the remark. Let's not even get started on how these dynamics create tension and a sense of inequity in the squadron when it comes to deployment cycles, work schedules while in garrison, and even post-separation working expectations, especially in the dual pilot couple household. Again, my experience with acquaintances on the post-separation side of things, tracks 100% batting average what you highlight. Problem is that 'thirsty' won't see what they don't want to see. So you're spinning your wheels with these types. Or that poor fuck I know that forewent a Viper for a bomber so wifie T-6 FAIP could join spouse with him, even though wouldn't stop the lamentations in the bar when not in mixed company (aka wifie not there). Just a god damn self-imposed heartbreak. Not all baby turtles make it to the ocean; I used to say that about UPT grads, but Jesus these days it's the late rate Capts, priors, or FAIPS going into second assignment the ones that look in need of better adulting mentorship. LOL
  5. hindsight2020

    What's wrong with the Air Force?

    Airline X? You presume too much. Robin Olds would have failed the Hogan.😆
  6. hindsight2020

    Commanders are dropping like flies this year

    At the end of the day, the only people who need to believe you in post af life is your wife, your mother, and your airline hiring board. The rest is ballwash. Lol
  7. hindsight2020

    New Mexico dairy concerned about Air Force contamination

    Good for the goose good for the gander indeed.
  8. hindsight2020

    The new airline thread

    As to the first paragraph, that has been happening for years now. USERRA is a joke wrt hiring in the real world. Caveat emptor. As to the second paragraph, I haven't heard of it. If true, eh, fvck 'em.
  9. hindsight2020

    C-130 down near Savannah, GA

    valid. Not the right forum for this discussion.
  10. hindsight2020

    Military Pilot Shortage and Aero Clubs

    Indeed. One of the things I'm most glad of is that my first exposure to aviation was civilian flying. UPT almost cured me from wanting to fly professionally for a living. I absolutely cherish my private aircraft ownership and also work hard to keep it as far away from anything work-related as possible. I enjoy the craft I'm allowed to draw a paycheck from the AF for, but at the end of the day it's tiring work. It would absolutely cure me from flying if I had to approach my own recreational/travel flying the same way. fwiw, I would say the same thing about airline flying. Just not my idea of a good time while flying. To each their own.
  11. hindsight2020

    Military Pilot Shortage and Aero Clubs

    I was briefly involved in the attempt to galvanize support for the re opening of the flying club two duty stations ago, and the bottom line is that it comes down to money over risk. WG/CC don't want the hassle and the club would be a burden on the general funding if not supported by the IFT graft money. Good bad or indifferent, it was a straight up cash cow for the instructors involved, but once thatmoney dried up, the other facilities wanted nothing to do with upkeeping the airplanes, which is why you saw them die en masee when the money was gone. The ladies at the CDC outvote you compared to the couple cats that want to have access to general aviation. It;s not just the military, as a private aircraft owner myself and involved in GA for longer I've been in the military, I can attest to the fact GA is a hard sell to the pedestrians on the civilian side of the street. Costs of certified anything make it a troubling proposition. Also, since most people want automotive quality accomodations for automotive prices, the proposition of spam cans become a non starter quick, since it only offers automotive comfort at million dollar housing prices.
  12. hindsight2020

    Commanders are dropping like flies this year

    LOL The fvcking irony of that statement....
  13. hindsight2020

    Commanders are dropping like flies this year

    There was a flag officer in attendance but it is my understanding he was the parent of a different student, not of the female targeted.
  14. hindsight2020

    Commanders are dropping like flies this year

    FTFY (correction in underline, opinion in bold). Not everybody in attendance was fond of his "management style", and that's as euphemistic as I can put it without causing his fans to insta mouth-foam. Fwiw, I'm also of the opinion the DO firing was circumstantial by virtue of subordinancy; the WG firing was certainly a political necessity, again neither causal imo. I digress. At the end of the day, part of being in the hot seat is taking the political fallout. And it is a political game make no mistake; nobody can claim ignorance to that reality at the O-4+ level. Everybody knows the name of the game when they get on that track. I was witness to the BAD/MIB bent spear flush; this thing is nothing new. AETC is in a tough position. The question of IP accessions quality control will continue to be debated at the 19th level, and the MWS communities will continue to claim ignorance to the cherry picking. It truly is a food fight at the inter-MAJCOM level, nothing really endemic to the UPT squadron itself. Though as we see on display, it definitively ends up always coming to a head.
  15. hindsight2020

    Car loans and interest rates

    False dichotomy. Both positions are correct at the same time. Not everybody borrows because they can't afford it. And most of America's behavior towards borrowing is motivated by the sheer inability to afford their lifestyle on the real wages they get paid in this craptastic McWage american labor landscape. An economy where the govt brags about everybody being employed (U3) but nobody gets paid shit (U6 by proxy). Neither the government nor the "mouth breathers" ever want to talk about that dichotomy though. So the street borrows for everything instead, inflating the price of everything. Those of us who don't subscribe to that life outlook get dragged into inelastic choices, and divorces ensue when hypergamy is not acquiesced to (ask me how I know). I have it on good authority most Americans recognize they're screwed in non-working life (I refuse to call it retirement, that concept is dead for post-millenials). The act of mortgaging their future labor value is thenceforth not only a sunk cost, but the rational choice when staring at the indignity of American life the very month the W-2 stops. Telling 250 million working age people to stop sucking at math and "become landlords" or "daytraders" is not incorrect on the technical merits, but it is tone deaf af. Equally tone deaf to mock/scorn W-2 life in general by suggesting it's [accurately] an insolvent way to become financially free, then not addressing the arithmetic impossibility of everybody being everybody's "landlord"/surgeon/WB FO/potato. Again, the canyon of living in the world of what things should be v. the world of what things are. But as always, "Better lucky than good", "better you than me", "timing and luck", "there is no justice"// pick your platitude...Nothing to see here. To each their own indeed wrt to borrowing.
  16. hindsight2020

    What is next for the UPT-Next graduates?

    Re-tracking these experiment guys is not all that cumbersome. We've recycled legacy students through an entire UPT cycle in the past, so this is really not a big deal in the volume we're speaking. Now, you go scale the production of PTN up to UPT classes, and any systemic recycling completely kills the economy sought after in the first place. What is true, is that the yearly production numbers originally targeted by AETC for the 2020 and beyond time frame, will not and are not being met under the current paradigm period dot. Everybody is circling around the answer but nobody wants to say it. The only way they're gonna legitimately meet the production quota is by re-opening another UPT base. There's no political capital to make that happen, so we'll continue failing. They're trying to crank up production on a cost neutral basis, and they'll fail. Show me the money.
  17. Over on APC the RUMINT is you're getting a C206 or a UAV, since that's what permeates the souther border locales that are taking new hires. No PC-12 or King airs in new hire location. Apparently them footing the bill for heavy rotorwing might also be a bit of a pipedream. So if you aren't willing to go to PR, you're gonna get offered a UAV more likely. The CBP route doesn't sound like a good place if you're looking for turbine FW time. That job sounds more compatible for someone who simply wants a fed job in these depressed economic communities for family/related reasons. Regionals or part 135 might offer better conduits to FW time if that's what you're after. Otherwise stay in ground pound law enforcement, get a retirement, then go play regional airline pilot in your 40s and 50s. Good luck!
  18. hindsight2020

    Hurricane Michael

    Didn't it take Homestead's AD wing a year to get back from McDill? Is it possible the AF might permanently pivot Tyndall's mission footprint as a result of this damage? Or is the damage not rise to the level of Homestead's outcome? I also recognize the latter was already facing threat from BRAC back in '93 (whereas TY doesn't have such a threat), so the comparison may not be apples to apples.
  19. management changes I hear? LOL
  20. hindsight2020

    It's Official, OCPs are Coming!

    Thank god for ejection seats.
  21. hindsight2020

    Promotion and PRF Information

    The retirement gouge is wrong. If you're a guy with a commissioning date before 06 You re a legacy guy, you don't get forced into BRS. that initial entry into military date doesn't change with a break in service. The only guys affected are those who had the choice to opt in, did so, then left the military. With a break in service you don't get a do over on the opt in if you decide to come back. You re auto enrolled. If you never did enroll, you don't get auto enrolled even as a post 06 guy. Only initial entry guys of 18 and beyond are.
  22. I'm a career AGR and there's no fucking way I'd take an ART job, even though I'm not an airline bound guy. Put simply, the 2.5% multiplier of an Active duty year is worth a hell of a lot more than the bullshit 1% FERS multiplier. Another thing people are missing, the FERS retirement for new hires since oh 2014, requires a yearly vesting fee of 4.4%!!! compared to goose egg for the military retirement. The FEHB offering is also expensive compared to Tricare. ART Pay is also 100% taxable vice AGR. It's just not anywhere near parity. The ART job nickle and dimes your paycheck to death, for a lower multiplier retirement. The value of buying back AD time is diluted when you consider you gotta wait until 50-whatever to collect the Reserve one to give you parity with the AD one, and you still have to do 5 physical years, you just can't buy back and call it time served. Nevermind you're doing so to shift down from 2.5% to 1% per creditable year. Maybe if they extended ARTs the fedral LEO multiplier you'd have a deal. Alas, nothing. If I knock out an active duty retirement in my late 40s (in my case) you'd have to make up that entire disbursement over 15 years, compared to me going and doing something else with my life and getting a monthly retainer check for waking up in the morning. And that's the problem with the ART calculus: It assumes you'd have no other option than doing the exact same shit you're doing right now, which just isn't the case for most dudes. Even if you know you're gonna hold on to this job until they kick you out at 57-60, you'd still be better off doing 20 AD in the AGR program and then mulling over if you want to continue as an ART for 5 years or whatever you need to tide you over. But that only works if you hussle all the way to fully vested retirement. If you stop short of that as an ART (the whole "it's only 5 years" vesting premise), you would have been better off getting an AD retirement, collecting a check immediately, and done something else with your life.... ..and the reason is that put simply: I don't need half a mil at 80, I need that money today so I can have a life while I'm young and active. Check of the month club in my 40s and 50s allows me the flexibility to reinvent myself without concern for the initial paycut. That's gonna be a different and personal answer for everybody. If you know for a fact there's nothing else you'd rather do between now and 60, go ART and have a nut. I don't have that kind of certainty in my life, certainly not anymore. For me it's all about that Time value of money homey, and I'm not just talking about compounding. Youth has a $$$ equivalent to me. Lower but earlier disbursement is more valuable to me than later/higher. I can guarantee myself today, tomorrow is not owed to me. That math is really not complicated. It matters not though. In AFRC the manning picture tells the tale. The ART program was 55% manned last time I gave a crap and looked at it. That was immediately followed by the retrofit ART-to-AGR restoration, which is why ARPC has been sucking hind teet on the personnel management/order cutting front for the last 3 FYs. Proof is in the pudding, the rank and file overwhelmingly favors the AGR. Even with it, manning on the full time side is not anywhere near 100%. So Occam's Razor. I digress.
  23. Most dudes want to make O-5 in these positions, and O-5 AGRs are slim pickings. O-4 no problem; I dunno why people act all indignant about it considering the retirement delta is ballwash, but I digress. Staff? Sure, that's precisely what the AF is short on. Absolutely open road on that one. Nobody does that shit for 8 years though. Again, not gonna help the 12 year guy. Most AFRC opportunities on that end are in DC, and that's a paycut due to the cost of living. So it's not all without opportunity costs. The folks that are close to the ring in my organization are opting for the regular smattering of CENTCOM bullshit-standard deployments, in order to get to the check o the month. These are of course airline types who are otherwise tapped out on USERRA and need the USERRA exempt tours to get them there. Regular AGRs, or title 10 MPA beyond 30 days (except school tours) are not USERRA exempt and thus not really available to these types, unless the airline approves the personal leave of absence. Generally speaking, if you're getting out at 12 you have a decision to make. Career AGR or go airlines. But you generally can't reach it from 12 by piece-mealing it. 1st world problems for sure, compared to 2004.
  24. hindsight2020

    Failed private pilot checkride 3 times + low scores

    I paid $700..... for an ATP-MEL INITIAL. BTW I grew up in part 61 before I ever set foot on a military airplane. I'm also an aircraft owner, and CFI/II. So civilian flight training is not a mystery to me. I'm telling you, this DPE is being the typical rent-seeking asshole that got a bunch of them to have their tickets pulled during the ATP gold rush of 2016. And your CFI is straight up failing you. This is why part 61 gets a bad rep and why part 141 kids go to the front of the line at the regionals. It's a hot mess. Pink slips are pretty specific on the events you failed. They are now also required to immediately discontinue the checkride if you fail an event, or you can choose to continue for credit at your own risk. Same deal for the oral, since it generally occurs before the flight. So you walking into a re-test should not be a mystery as to what is sampled. I've had re-checks and usually the DPE can opt to re-test everything but generally they concentrate on the busted item and move on, especially if the oral was passed. You're getting taken to the cleaners and your CFI has allowed your training record (airman database with the FAA) to be gratuitously checkered because some asshole DPE has been milking you. Nothing that can be done about that now, except remove yourself from that training gangbang you're in the middle of, and go to a different CFI, and a different DPE. Or continue to roll the dice with these two assholes. Your call. Absolutely UFB the cesspool part 61 can be. Land of grifters, all groveling and blue falconing for a god damn regional airline FO job, or profiting from said aspirants.
  25. hindsight2020

    Failed private pilot checkride 3 times + low scores

    I just want to know who is this CFI who has been re-signing you to re-take your checkride without making damn sure you can pass a mock checkride profile and not just "barely". The checkride isn't all that involved, unless your DPE is a POS. And for the love of god please tell me you haven't taken all three checkrides with the same DPE. Checkride failures are a part of life man for some of us man. I've buried friends in this business with better checkride records than mine. There's more to life than stressing about a perfect score. Multiple check fails may make it impossible to get a major airline job, but at the PPL level it matters fuck all, beyond your interviewing unit extrapolating that you will struggle in UPT because of your PPL checkride track record. I can't help you there if that's the perception. Life ain't fair type of deal. If you've taken the re-checks with the same DPE, just stop and seek a different DPE. Fire your CFI and get with another one to have another hack at you, and see where you're falling short when it comes to pass the PPL ride. Good luck to ya.
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