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hindsight2020

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hindsight2020 last won the day on October 9

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About hindsight2020

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    Flight Lead
  • Birthday 10/18/1981

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  1. hindsight2020

    What is next for the UPT-Next graduates?

    Re-tracking these experiment guys is not all that cumbersome. We've recycled legacy students through an entire UPT cycle in the past, so this is really not a big deal in the volume we're speaking. Now, you go scale the production of PTN up to UPT classes, and any systemic recycling completely kills the economy sought after in the first place. What is true, is that the yearly production numbers originally targeted by AETC for the 2020 and beyond time frame, will not and are not being met under the current paradigm period dot. Everybody is circling around the answer but nobody wants to say it. The only way they're gonna legitimately meet the production quota is by re-opening another UPT base. There's no political capital to make that happen, so we'll continue failing. They're trying to crank up production on a cost neutral basis, and they'll fail. Show me the money.
  2. Over on APC the RUMINT is you're getting a C206 or a UAV, since that's what permeates the souther border locales that are taking new hires. No PC-12 or King airs in new hire location. Apparently them footing the bill for heavy rotorwing might also be a bit of a pipedream. So if you aren't willing to go to PR, you're gonna get offered a UAV more likely. The CBP route doesn't sound like a good place if you're looking for turbine FW time. That job sounds more compatible for someone who simply wants a fed job in these depressed economic communities for family/related reasons. Regionals or part 135 might offer better conduits to FW time if that's what you're after. Otherwise stay in ground pound law enforcement, get a retirement, then go play regional airline pilot in your 40s and 50s. Good luck!
  3. hindsight2020

    Hurricane Michael

    Didn't it take Homestead's AD wing a year to get back from McDill? Is it possible the AF might permanently pivot Tyndall's mission footprint as a result of this damage? Or is the damage not rise to the level of Homestead's outcome? I also recognize the latter was already facing threat from BRAC back in '93 (whereas TY doesn't have such a threat), so the comparison may not be apples to apples.
  4. management changes I hear? LOL
  5. hindsight2020

    It's Official, OCPs are Coming!

    Thank god for ejection seats.
  6. hindsight2020

    Promotion and PRF Information

    The retirement gouge is wrong. If you're a guy with a commissioning date before 06 You re a legacy guy, you don't get forced into BRS. that initial entry into military date doesn't change with a break in service. The only guys affected are those who had the choice to opt in, did so, then left the military. With a break in service you don't get a do over on the opt in if you decide to come back. You re auto enrolled. If you never did enroll, you don't get auto enrolled even as a post 06 guy. Only initial entry guys of 18 and beyond are.
  7. I'm a career AGR and there's no fucking way I'd take an ART job, even though I'm not an airline bound guy. Put simply, the 2.5% multiplier of an Active duty year is worth a hell of a lot more than the bullshit 1% FERS multiplier. Another thing people are missing, the FERS retirement for new hires since oh 2014, requires a yearly vesting fee of 4.4%!!! compared to goose egg for the military retirement. The FEHB offering is also expensive compared to Tricare. ART Pay is also 100% taxable vice AGR. It's just not anywhere near parity. The ART job nickle and dimes your paycheck to death, for a lower multiplier retirement. The value of buying back AD time is diluted when you consider you gotta wait until 50-whatever to collect the Reserve one to give you parity with the AD one, and you still have to do 5 physical years, you just can't buy back and call it time served. Nevermind you're doing so to shift down from 2.5% to 1% per creditable year. Maybe if they extended ARTs the fedral LEO multiplier you'd have a deal. Alas, nothing. If I knock out an active duty retirement in my late 40s (in my case) you'd have to make up that entire disbursement over 15 years, compared to me going and doing something else with my life and getting a monthly retainer check for waking up in the morning. And that's the problem with the ART calculus: It assumes you'd have no other option than doing the exact same shit you're doing right now, which just isn't the case for most dudes. Even if you know you're gonna hold on to this job until they kick you out at 57-60, you'd still be better off doing 20 AD in the AGR program and then mulling over if you want to continue as an ART for 5 years or whatever you need to tide you over. But that only works if you hussle all the way to fully vested retirement. If you stop short of that as an ART (the whole "it's only 5 years" vesting premise), you would have been better off getting an AD retirement, collecting a check immediately, and done something else with your life.... ..and the reason is that put simply: I don't need half a mil at 80, I need that money today so I can have a life while I'm young and active. Check of the month club in my 40s and 50s allows me the flexibility to reinvent myself without concern for the initial paycut. That's gonna be a different and personal answer for everybody. If you know for a fact there's nothing else you'd rather do between now and 60, go ART and have a nut. I don't have that kind of certainty in my life, certainly not anymore. For me it's all about that Time value of money homey, and I'm not just talking about compounding. Youth has a $$$ equivalent to me. Lower but earlier disbursement is more valuable to me than later/higher. I can guarantee myself today, tomorrow is not owed to me. That math is really not complicated. It matters not though. In AFRC the manning picture tells the tale. The ART program was 55% manned last time I gave a crap and looked at it. That was immediately followed by the retrofit ART-to-AGR restoration, which is why ARPC has been sucking hind teet on the personnel management/order cutting front for the last 3 FYs. Proof is in the pudding, the rank and file overwhelmingly favors the AGR. Even with it, manning on the full time side is not anywhere near 100%. So Occam's Razor. I digress.
  8. Most dudes want to make O-5 in these positions, and O-5 AGRs are slim pickings. O-4 no problem; I dunno why people act all indignant about it considering the retirement delta is ballwash, but I digress. Staff? Sure, that's precisely what the AF is short on. Absolutely open road on that one. Nobody does that shit for 8 years though. Again, not gonna help the 12 year guy. Most AFRC opportunities on that end are in DC, and that's a paycut due to the cost of living. So it's not all without opportunity costs. The folks that are close to the ring in my organization are opting for the regular smattering of CENTCOM bullshit-standard deployments, in order to get to the check o the month. These are of course airline types who are otherwise tapped out on USERRA and need the USERRA exempt tours to get them there. Regular AGRs, or title 10 MPA beyond 30 days (except school tours) are not USERRA exempt and thus not really available to these types, unless the airline approves the personal leave of absence. Generally speaking, if you're getting out at 12 you have a decision to make. Career AGR or go airlines. But you generally can't reach it from 12 by piece-mealing it. 1st world problems for sure, compared to 2004.
  9. hindsight2020

    Failed private pilot checkride 3 times + low scores

    I paid $700..... for an ATP-MEL INITIAL. BTW I grew up in part 61 before I ever set foot on a military airplane. I'm also an aircraft owner, and CFI/II. So civilian flight training is not a mystery to me. I'm telling you, this DPE is being the typical rent-seeking asshole that got a bunch of them to have their tickets pulled during the ATP gold rush of 2016. And your CFI is straight up failing you. This is why part 61 gets a bad rep and why part 141 kids go to the front of the line at the regionals. It's a hot mess. Pink slips are pretty specific on the events you failed. They are now also required to immediately discontinue the checkride if you fail an event, or you can choose to continue for credit at your own risk. Same deal for the oral, since it generally occurs before the flight. So you walking into a re-test should not be a mystery as to what is sampled. I've had re-checks and usually the DPE can opt to re-test everything but generally they concentrate on the busted item and move on, especially if the oral was passed. You're getting taken to the cleaners and your CFI has allowed your training record (airman database with the FAA) to be gratuitously checkered because some asshole DPE has been milking you. Nothing that can be done about that now, except remove yourself from that training gangbang you're in the middle of, and go to a different CFI, and a different DPE. Or continue to roll the dice with these two assholes. Your call. Absolutely UFB the cesspool part 61 can be. Land of grifters, all groveling and blue falconing for a god damn regional airline FO job, or profiting from said aspirants.
  10. hindsight2020

    Failed private pilot checkride 3 times + low scores

    I just want to know who is this CFI who has been re-signing you to re-take your checkride without making damn sure you can pass a mock checkride profile and not just "barely". The checkride isn't all that involved, unless your DPE is a POS. And for the love of god please tell me you haven't taken all three checkrides with the same DPE. Checkride failures are a part of life man for some of us man. I've buried friends in this business with better checkride records than mine. There's more to life than stressing about a perfect score. Multiple check fails may make it impossible to get a major airline job, but at the PPL level it matters fuck all, beyond your interviewing unit extrapolating that you will struggle in UPT because of your PPL checkride track record. I can't help you there if that's the perception. Life ain't fair type of deal. If you've taken the re-checks with the same DPE, just stop and seek a different DPE. Fire your CFI and get with another one to have another hack at you, and see where you're falling short when it comes to pass the PPL ride. Good luck to ya.
  11. hindsight2020

    Future T-38 replacement?

    T-50 or T-X, all the same MIC-laden potato, same engine even. I'm just glad they got it on the board. . I'll still be in by IOC so def look forward to flying it. We need to retire the 38 right yesterday
  12. hindsight2020

    How Long For New Studs To Be Disillusioned?

    Jesus Christ....
  13. hindsight2020

    T-6s Grounded; More OBOGS Issues

    Except I didn't make the argument for unlimited training, that's a straw man you made (logical fallacy #1). Also, you're advocating under a false dichotomy (logical fallacy #2). Fielding VR potato and increasing hours is not mutually exclusive , especially under my argument that the reason we're faced with jousting for monetary position in the first place is the gargantuan contractor graft that has ballooned our defense budget to morally abhorrent levels. Have you instructed under the current VR products/paradigm? I have. This is work that belongs in an actual test squadron. This has zero place in operational training squadrons. We're about to surge in the next month in order to fix the timeline blunder created out of what was an amateur and hasty implementation of immature tech/process for the sake of appeasing a couple generals. BOHICA October. Here comes a hell of a lot of flying time and legacy syllabus to fix the VR blunder. The irony. Again, I'm not making a Luddite argument, just refuting the claim less seat time is a sunk cost in this discussion. It is not.
  14. hindsight2020

    T-6s Grounded; More OBOGS Issues

    maybe if our defense budget priorities were not lined with so much defense contract graft, perhaps giving our pilots hella more seat time wouldn't be such blasphemy. We create most of the problems we're accosted about solving....
  15. The po po is out now. CDI folks making the rounds as of today.....
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