Jump to content

Champ Kind

Moderator
  • Posts

    2,019
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    42

Posts posted by Champ Kind

  1. Here's the APZ DP promotion Rates the last few years.
    2015: 83.8%
    2016: 100%
    2017: 96%
    2018: 91.7%
    2019: 91.4%
    2020: 91.3%
    2021: 66.7%
    For whatever reason, this board was significantly rougher for those individuals. That f'ing sucks.


    Is that the full story? Pretty sure APZ rates overall have gone up in recent years.

    Agree that it is a shame that boards are apparently disregarding a senior rater’s DP promotion recommendation, especially when they only have so many allocated and them giving it to an APZ was one less available for an IPZ.
  2. 14 hours ago, MCO said:

    A year and a half ago 2 of the 6 C130 flying squadrons had commanders that didn’t attend IDE. One of them took over as a major with 4 months left until pinning on Lt Col. Granted still a lower percentage but not unheard of.

    Fair enough for that snapshot in time.  I knew of the one, I didn't make the connection on the second.  I know that one of those individuals would acknowledge that their career path was certainly the exception.  I'd be surprised if the other didn't do the same.

    So, back to the point...  yes, it's possible.  Yes, it occurred twice in a relatively small span of time.  The takeaway should be that it's possible, but certainly not something to which someone should plan.

  3. 8 hours ago, FLEA said:

     Once on a list, you essentially need "hired" at that point, which means a wing commander has to select you to command. This is where mentorships and relationships come in handy. Your former squadron commanders will now be wing or group commanders who can advocate for you. Wing Commanders hand in their ideal picks on what's called their "bar napkin." If a wing commander picks you, you go. If more than one commander picks you, AFPC or MAJCOM mediates to div out competitive hires. 

     

     

     

    This is a pretty accurate breakdown of the process.  What cannot be overstated is the impact individual personalities have on this process.  My experience has been that hiring authorities will very, very rarely directly tell a prospective CC that they are in their plan.  CC selection remains one of the least transparent processes in an officer's development.  Based on the daynightindicator's comment above, this appears to be a substantial difference between MAF and CAF.  Furthermore, even if you're told one-on-one by a hiring authority that you're "in the plan", that is almost exclusively followed with a caveat of "but things can change."  These changes can be anything from the hiring authority changing his/her mind, to having a ranking officer implant a hire into a wing's game plan.  

    Edit to add:  like most things, timing is everything.  You have a 50% chance of finding yourself in a situation where the wing commander/hiring authority that's in the seat when PE nominations are due will not be the person that does the actual hiring after he/she leaves command in a typically two-year summer PCS cycle...  yet another impact of individual personalities.  

    • Like 1
  4. 2 hours ago, dream big said:

    On the MAF side, 50% of those selected for Phoenix Eagle did not do residence IDE.  Many of them are commanding flying squadrons now.  

    I haven't posted in a while, but this thread got my attention.  

    Define "many", please.  I can't think of a single current sitting CC in the AD Herk community that didn't do residence IDE.  I know of enough in other MAF communities to be able to confidently say that a vast majority of sitting CCs completed IDE in residence.  I don't mean to call you out, but I think we owe it to the OP and anyone reading now and in the future to keep the conversation based on fact.  

    • Like 2
  5. Now your 5th look to O-5 will take you within spitting distance to retirement. 



    What’s the first year group wholly affected by the BRS only/no pension at 20 years deal? Will people in that year group (or those that opted in) even be motivated to stick it out till 20? I doubt it.
    • Like 1
  6. Brutal confluence of events but I could totally see it -- you need some senior rater luck in this game.  I'm off to school this summer with a DP 1-below and I'm fully anticipating a P out of the school MLR next year IPZ but whatevs.   I'm just hoping by virtue of being in school during IPZ that I'll have a good chance.  But hearing this story stings!   


    How many people have you ever heard of getting passed over for promotion while attending or having finished in-res IDE?
    • Downvote 1
  7. Every Pilot 0-4 I know of that is a DO is one of the shiny penny type that’s about to go to school / staff or is already an 0-5 select. 


    I’m sorry... what’s your definition of shiny penny again? Because you just threw out three different categories of people in that statement, all of which fall into very different rankings in my opinion.
    • Downvote 1
  8. Anyone else tracking the O-4 promotion list estimated release early or mid May?  I'm thinking it might be earlier.  Anyone have any intel from any A1 folks on if it will be sooner?  

    I’m having a hard time recalling a single time that promotion results were released before the AFPC estimate. I’d go with that.
    • Like 1
    • Downvote 1
  9. If your SR thought well enough of you to spend a #4/42 Maj strat on you, then he should have given you a DP to ensure your selection.   
    Also, without seeing the rest of your record, it’s hard to say.    


    Spot on. Also, to those saying that no consideration should be given to IPZ vs APZ, my concern would be the quality of his(?) records that led to getting passed over in IPZ. Seldom does that much change in a year.

    • Downvote 1
  10. 6 hours ago, torqued said:

    The things I like about SWA: Financial fitness. SWA is absolutely killing it, and barring a disaster, I'll likely never need worry about my employment or company growth...The company culture is fantastic. 

    What is this "company culture" you speak of?

    In all seriousness:  I hear this about SWA all the time.  Can you elaborate some more and provide some specific examples?  I'm particularly curious since once of the attractions of the airline industry (in any company) is the "show up, fly, leave airport, don't think about work until the next trip" mentality, so how good could a culture really be (or matter) if you're making good coin to fly airplanes anyway.

    • Downvote 1
  11. 1/3 BPZs with a pretty strong push line.  I thought I was borderline to pull a DP at the MLR and but at a minimum this helps for IPZ next year.  Good luck to IPZ folks getting their PRFs back the next couple weeks with the good boxed checked. 


    Congrats. The DP at least gets you in the correct pile at the board. No chance without that.

    Your actual chances of selection are based on several things. First, it has to be more than just your PRF and OPR on top. If you’ve got a string of OPRs with #1 rank/grade based wing strats (ie, #1/100 Wg Capts....not 1/35 IPs), that’s good. If you’ve got multiple DGs (not the least of which from SOS), that’s even better. Jobs with proven leadership and responsibilities are a must. Your PRF being signed by a GO or at least a wing CC of a large wing is a decent boost too. Finally, being at the top of a large denominator of eligibles really helps. I’ve seen SRs actually push some BTZs above IPZs by stratting then as 1/XX eligibles (not just BTZ) with a push that said something like “1/XX eligibles ahead of X IPZ....he’s that good.” You have all of those things, and you’re definitely in decent shape. If only one or two or only shades of what I described, I’d put your chances in the single digits as mentioned in the post above.

    Either way, I’d use this year’s process (and your BTZ DP) as a positive indication that you’ll make it IPZ (in case you’re trying to make life plans as far as getting out/staying in).
    • Downvote 1
  12. Probably stated my opinion in a better way than I put it.
     
    It is partially semantics.  Unarmed infil/exfil, Intel gathering, refueling, etc. are all important functions, but I would argue that they are not employing weapons to fulfill those functions.  I can see EW and offensive cyber, as they can disable enemy systems directly. 
    Calling a school that teaches tactics for an unarmed aircraft/system that does not have direct effects on the enemy a "weapons school" rings hollow to me.  I call it political posturing because that is how you get the tactical experts in some communities to be taken seriously (e.g. people look for patches).  The patch and title of "weapons school grad" gives a base level of commonality and familiarity across communities.  
    Yes, when I meet AMC dudes who have a patch, I assume they are good at their jobs.  What I don't think to myself is "wow, what an impressive weapon" when I look at a KC-135.
    To me it fits in with the "everyone a warrior" idea.  Not everyone is a warrior.  That doesn't diminish their value.  We need docs, logisticians, engineers, network admins, etc, etc.  If you are in uniform, you should have training in combat skills, but that's for contingencies in most AFSCs.


    Your position on the topic is obvious. For context, would you mind sharing your aircraft and if you graduated from WIC?
    • Like 1
    • Downvote 1
×
×
  • Create New...