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There's far too much money to be made by the defense industry to just stop using the most expensive means available to attack our enemies. The expense is seen as an advantage by them, not a problem. It's why these wars have persisted for 16 years and will never end. Destruction of surplus also ensures the taxpaying population never gets too comfortable to start questioning why there is no exit strategy.
The economic exchange factor between belligerents is always relevant, even more so in COIN / LIC.
If we plan to keep running these marathons, we need a sustainability plan as much as we need an exit plan as these things will likely run 15-20 years to kill, build and suppress the enemy long enough to "win".
Honestly, the only guard bubba I recall see go through is a current student, and I’ve been here either on staff or attached as an instructor for 3.5 years. That said, if there’s a slot open, there may be less competition for it than on AD, because I’m guessing most guard guys aren’t interested in the commitment.
As to airframes after TPS, I’d say it’s about 60-70% go back to your original airframe, for the first assignment at least. It’s all about timing. And that’s across all types of aircraft.